Daily Market Report - 16th Sep 2020

$50 Free Margin Account Campaign: 

https://www.nooralmal.com/cc19...

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair surged to 1.1900 early Tuesday, underpinned by the market’s optimism and encouraging European data. Germany published the September ZEW Survey, which surprised with positive figures, providing additional support to the shared currency. The Economic Sentiment in the country improved to 77.4 in September, while for the whole Union, it jumped to 73.9, both beating the market’s expectations. However, demand for the greenback returned in the American session, with the pair turning red and falling towards the current 1.1850 price zone. The lack of follow-through may have a direct correlation with the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement this Wednesday.

US data was mixed, as the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for September printed at 17, beating the expected 6. August Industrial Production, however, posted a modest 0.4% advance from 3% in the previous month, while Capacity Utilization for the same month, improved as expected to 71.4% from 70.6% in July. Ahead of the Fed’s decision, the US will publish August Retail Sales, seen up 1% in the month.

The EUR/USD pair has trimmed its weekly gains, trading at the same level where it left on Friday. It’s technically neutral, according to the 4-hour chart, as technical indicators retreated to turn flat around their midlines. Moving averages in the mentioned time frame remain in a tight range and lacking directional strength. Market players will likely wait for the Fed’s announcement before taking action, with further range-trading expected ahead of the event. The main resistance level is 1.1915, where the pair topped last week, and it also has the 61.8% retracement of its September decline.

Support levels: 1.1800 1.1750 1.1710

Resistance levels: 1.1880 1.1915 1.1960  

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair extended its weekly decline to 105.29, a fresh September low, recovering some ground ahead of the close, amid rising equities and US government bond yields. Nevertheless, the pair is clearly reflecting the lack of interest in the greenback, ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision. The dollar remained under selling pressure despite a better market mood, this last backed by upbeat Chinese data. US indexes traded in the green throughout the session, advancing for a second consecutive day. US Treasury yields, in the meantime, ticked higher.

Japan will publish this Wednesday the August Merchandise Trade Balance, foreseen at ¥-37.5 B from ¥10.9 B in the previous month. Imports are expected to have dropped 18% while exports are seen down by 16.1%.

The USD/JPY pair is trading around the 105.50 level, and still at risk of falling, according to the 4-hour chart. The pair fell further below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating south below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have barely bounced from their daily lows, lacking enough strength to anticipate a recovery.

Support levels: 105.10 104.70 104.40

Resistance levels: 106.00 106.35 106.70 

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair is holding on t gains as Tuesday comes to an end, trading in the 1.2900 price zone. The pair reached an intraday high of 1.2926, underpinned by upbeat UK employment-related data. According to the official report, the ILO unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in the three months to July as expected, although average hourly earnings in the same period beat expectations, up by 0.2% excluding bonus. Also, the number of people out of work in August was 73.7K, below the 100K expected.

On Monday, the House of Commons debated the Internal Market Bill, which was finally backed by MPs and has been moved to the upper chamber, the House of Lords. UK PM Johnson said that the bill would give the UK a "more real possibility" of a trade deal with the EU. The bill overrides parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, particularly related to how borders will be handled in Ireland.

This Wednesday, the UK will publish August inflation figures. The annual CPI is foreseen unchanged, down from 1% in the previous month. Core annual inflation is expected to have contracted to 0.6% from 1.8% previously.

The GBP/USD pair holds on to its latest gains, but far from trimming the Brexit-related losses from last week. In the 4-hour chart, the pair has advanced above a bearish 20 SMA but holds below the 100 and 200 SMA which stands in the 1.3120/30 price zone. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, turning marginally lower, suggesting that buying interest is limited.

Support levels: 1.2860 1.2810 1.2760 

Resistance levels: 1.2920 1.2965 1.3000

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD pair surged to 0.7342, its highest in two weeks, but gave up ahead of the close, unable to retain gains beyond the 0.7300 level. The early advance was backed by data released at the beginning of the day, as China published Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures, which beat expectations in August. Also, the RBA published the Minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting, which repeated the well-known stance of policymakers towards keeping rates low and the monetary policy highly accommodative. Worth noting, Board members said that a lower Aussie would provide more assistance to economic recovery.

This Wednesday, Australia will publish the August Westpac Leading Index, previously at 0.06%, and HIA New Home Sales for the same month, foreseen at 79.6% from 64.4% previously.

The AUD/USD pair is trading a few pips below the 0.7300 level ahead of the Asian opening, retaining a neutral-to-bullish bias. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is developing above all of its moving averages, which maintain their bullish slopes. Technical indicators, however, retreated towards their midlines, turning flat around them. Renewed buying interest beyond 0.7310 could result in a higher high for the week, mainly if the market’s mood remains upbeat.

Support levels: 0.7250 0.7215 0.7170 

Resistance levels: 0.7310 0.7350 0.7385

GOLD

Gold spiked on Tuesday before the American session to the highest level in almost two weeks, but it then pulled back to the $1,950 ending the day practically flat. The move lower was triggered by a recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. In Wall Street, the greenback gained strength and trimmed losses versus commodity and emerging market currencies, but not against the yen. Higher U.S. yields did not affect the Japanese currency but contributed to limit the upside in XAU/USD. On Wednesday, the key event will be the Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy. Also, FOMC members will present their macroeconomic projections.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is neutral to bullish in the short-term. On Tuesday it was rejected from above $1,970, showing lack of strength for another run higher. The pullback was capped by $1,950 that has become a relevant interim support. A slide below would suggest a continuation of the consolidation range. Below the next support stands around $1,935, and then attention would turn to the critical level of $1,900.

Support Levels: $1,937 $1,905 $1,860

Resistance Levels: $1,965 $1,978 $2,015

SILVER

Silver reached a higher high at $27.70 and also a higher low around $27.00 that should be seen as positive, but it ended the day on a negative note near the lows. The rally weakened during the American session when the U.S. dollar gained momentum and as equity prices moved off highs. The deterioration in risk sentiment and the recovery of the dollar sent XAG/USD back toward $27.00. The outlook is still neutral to positive. Market participants await the FOMC decision to be announced on Wednesday.

In the very short-term silver is moving with a bullish bias but the failure to hold above $27.50 point to some difficulties in extending the move to the upside. A consolidation above the mentioned level is needed to strengthen the bullish bias while a decline under $27.00 (round number, horizontal support and convergence of key short-term moving averages) would weaken the outlook. The next support stands at $26.50, that protects $26.00.

Support Levels: $27.00 $26.50 $26.00

Resistance Levels: $27.70 $28.30 $29.15

CRUDE WTI

Oil prices advanced on Tuesday, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark gaining about 3% on the day, as Hurricane Sally, expected to downfall on Wednesday, is forcing the shutdown of offshore Gulf of Mexico crude production and some refineries. However, unremitting global demand worries continue to keep the upside limited. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday that it expects the oil demand recovery to "decelerate markedly" in the remainder of the year, and estimates that global demand will fall by 8.4 million barrels this year.

WTI price reached a one-week high of $38.54 during the American afternoon, although it pulled back to trade at the $38.35/bbl area, 2.97% up on the day. The short-term technical picture has turned positive according to 4-hour charts following today’s price action. The immediate upside hurdle remains at the $38.50 area. A breakout there could accelerate the bounce toward the $39.50 zone en-route to the 200-day SMA at $40.20. On the flip side, initial support is seen at the $36.80-70 area, while the loss of last week low of $36.10 would exert renewed pressure on the price.

Support Levels: $36.80 $36.10 $35.40

Resistance Levels: $38.50 $39.50 $40.20

DOW JONES

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index pulled back from session highs and erased early gains to close virtually flat on Tuesday. The DJIA rose 2 points, or 0.01%, ending at 27.995. It had hit a session peak of 28,231 but failed to hold above the 20-day SMA and the 28,000 threshold. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 17 points, or 0.52%, to close at 3,401. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 133 points, or 1.21%, and finished the session at 11,190. The tech sector led the advance and, combined with M&A activity, helped the S&P and the Nasdaq Composite to lock intraday gains, extending the recovery after last week’s sell-off.

The DJIA technical bias remains tilted to the upside according to short-term indicators, while the 100- and 200-day SMA are about to make a bullish cross. However, the DJIA needs a decisive break above the 28,200 resistance area to gain momentum. On the downside, initial support stands at the 27,400 zone, followed by 27,000. The loss of this latter could risk a deeper fall with not much in the way until the mentioned SMA crossover at 26,300.

Support Levels: 27,400 27,000 26,300

Resistance Levels: 28,200 28,750 29,200

MACROECONOMIC EVENTS

* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.

Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

All Rights Reserved © Noor Al Mal

#9月美联储决议会重磅来袭##TikTok不卖了##欧央行决议按兵不动##无协议脱欧风险又来##美股狂飙要到头了吗#