Current trend

Against poor macroeconomic statistics of the leading EU countries, the EUR/USD pair is unsuccessfully trying to renew the year’s high, trading at 1.0948.

Thus, the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) reported a decrease in the business climate index in June from 91.5 points to 88.5 points, the indicator of business expectations decreased from 88.3 points to 83.6 points, and the indicator of exporters’ sentiment in the manufacturing sector reached -5.6 points against 1.0 points earlier, having returned to the negative zone. In the next three months, most sectors of the German industry expect exports to weaken, and growth can only be observed in the category of beverages and clothing. Negative dynamics are observed not only in Germany but also in other EU economies, which puts pressure on the single currency.

The US dollar continues sideways movement at 102.200 in the USD Index, not reacting to yesterday’s positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the number of building permits issued increased from 1.417M to 1.496M, and new home sales – from 680.0K to 763.0K.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues to grow, holding within the global ascending corridor with dynamic boundaries of 1.1200–1.0690.

Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator widen the oscillation range, moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram forms rising bars, growing in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0990, 1.1150.

Support levels: 1.0880, 1.0690.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.0990 with the target at 1.1150. Stop loss – 1.0920. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after a reversal, reduction, and consolidation of the price below 1.0880 with the target at 1.0690. Stop loss – 1.0960