The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is continuing to push back against financial markets' expectations of a central bank interest rate cut this year. RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway reaffirmed this stance during a live-streamed webinar, emphasizing that New Zealand still has a long way to go in the battle against domestic inflation.
He downplayed the weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the September quarter, suggesting that the slowdown was a result of high interest rates effectively slowing the economy and cooling inflation. He also noted that the GDP figures had been revised downward historically due to a change in methodology by Stats NZ.
However, Conway cautioned that this change in methodology did not necessarily indicate lower capacity pressures in the economy.
In its November monetary statement, the RBNZ indicated that no rate cuts are expected before the middle of 2025. However, financial markets have priced in at least two cuts this year, with the possibility of them happening as soon as May.
Conway further explained that non-tradable inflation in New Zealand has remained more persistent than tradable inflation. He attributed this to various factors unique to the country's economy, such as the trade-off between competition and scale in its markets. He highlighted that while competition is good for low prices and efficient businesses, scale allows larger businesses to be more productive and pass on low prices to consumers.
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