Current trend

The EUR/GBP pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, holding near 0.8473. Activity remains reduced as some investors remain out of the market ahead of schedule due to the celebration of Independence Day in the United States the day before.

Today at 11:00 (GMT 2), May statistics on Retail Sales will be published in the eurozone: in annual terms, analysts expect the indicator to grow from 0.0% to 0.1%, and in monthly terms — from –0.5% to 0.2%. Traders are also assessing data from Germany today: Industrial Production fell sharply 6.7% year-on-year after –3.9% in the previous month, and fell 2.5% month-on-month after –0.1% in April, while traders expected 0.2%. The day before, the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place in early June, were also released: according to the document, most officials are confident in a further reduction in inflation; however, some members of the regulator’s board expressed concern about the too slow reduction in the growth rate of consumer prices and stated that there are grounds for maintaining the current interest rate. There were more supporters of the beginning of easing monetary policy, but the follow-up statement indicated that new signs of increasing price pressure will complicate further adjustment of borrowing costs.

In turn, early parliamentary elections began in the UK on Thursday: as predicted, Labor won, receiving an unconditional majority of seats in the House of Commons — 410 out of 650. Incumbent British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party wins only 131 seats. However, investors are confident that even if the ruling party changes, there will be no significant changes in economic policy.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range expands slightly from above, freeing a path to previous local highs for the "bulls". MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, on the contrary, maintains a confident downward direction and has so far hardly responded to the instrument’s attempts to resume growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.8483, 0.8500, 0.8519, 0.8530.

Support levels: 0.8465, 0.8450, 0.8431, 0.8410.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.8483 with the target of 0.8500. Stop-loss — 0.8470. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 0.8483 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.8465 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.8431. Stop-loss — 0.8483.