Current trend

After consolidation above 0.6703, the AUD/USD pair is growing to the December high of 0.6860 amid positive macroeconomic statistics.

In June, the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index increased from –2.0 points to 4.0 points, reflecting the development of the investment business, which can lead to a higher production level. The May building permits adjusted from 1.9% to 5.5% MoM, justifying forecasts. It is the leading indicator of the real estate market, and its growth indicates a favorable climate in the economy and supports the national currency exchange rate. The July data on consumer inflation expectations for the next twelve months from the University of Melbourne was published yesterday. The indicator changed from 4.4% to 4.3%, significantly above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2.0–3.0%, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year.

The long-term trend is upward. Last week, the price broke the resistance level of 0.6703 and headed to the December high of 0.6860 and then to the region of 0.6890 and 0.7015. In case of correction and reaching the support level of 0.6703, growth to the current week’s high of 0.6795 is expected. The trend border is shifting to 0.6575, and while the quotes are above it, it is worth opening long positions.

The medium-term trend remains upward. The asset reached zone 3 (0.6811–0.6797) and began to decline to the key trend support area of ​​0.6653–0.6639. Then, long positions, with the target at the current week’s high at 0.6795 are relevant. In case of a breakout of 0.6639 and consolidation below it, a decline to zone 2 (0.6508–0.6494) may follow.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6860, 0.6890, 0.7015.

Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6575.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the 0.6700 level, with the target at 0.6860 and stop loss 0.6660. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6660, with the target at 0.6575 and stop loss 0.6700.