Current trend

During the Asian session, the price of WTI Crude Oil consolidates around 81.86, remaining under pressure from Chinese statistics.

China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 4.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 5.3% in the first quarter and the expected 5.1%, while Retail Sales fell from 3.7% in June to 2.0% from preliminary estimates of 3.3%, increasing concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy and lower fuel demand from the world's largest importer of oil, which in turn is seen as a key factor putting downward pressure on quotes. Crude oil imports fell both month-on-month and year-on-year, also consistent with signs that the rapid development of China's electric vehicle industry may mean demand has already peaked. According to Bloomberg, shipments have fallen by 2.3% since the beginning of the year, and trade tensions are increasing as the US and EU introduce new tariffs on electric cars from China.

Some support for oil prices is provided by reserves data: according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), the indicator adjusted from –1.923 million barrels to –4.440 million barrels, while the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a decrease by 4.870 million barrels from –3.443 million barrels with a forecast of –0.900 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the market is experiencing a correction, and, according to a report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in WTI Crude Oil increased to 283.9 thousand from 279.9 thousand. The gap in favor of buyers remains, which keeps quotes in an upward trend: the balance of "bulls" among producers amounted to 377.160 thousand against 364.112 thousand for "bears". Last week, buyers opened 1.934 thousand new contracts, and sellers opened 3.713 thousand.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is trading within a downward channel with boundaries of 83.00–71.00, being near the resistance line.

Technical indicators maintain an unstable buy signal, which was significantly weakened due to a local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are still above the signal line, keeping the fluctuation range directed upwards, and the AO histogram is forming new corrective bars, located above the transition level.

Support levels: 80.00, 76.80.

Resistance levels: 82.40, 85.10.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened when the price consolidates above the resistance level of 82.40 with the target of 85.10. Stop-loss — 81.00. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Short positions can be opened after the price consolidates below the support level of 80.00 with the target of 76.80. Stop-loss — 82.00.