Daily digest market movers: Make or break

In early Asian trading, the Chinese offshore Yuan reached its strongest level against the US Dollar since June 2023, hitting 7.0710 in USD/CNH.

At 12:30 GMT, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (CPE) numbers for July will be released:

Headline PCE is expected to come in a touch stronger at 0.2% on the month, up from the 0.1% increase seen in June. The yearly component should head higher as well to 2.6% from 2.5%.

Core PCE on the month is expected to grow by 0.2%, the same pace as in June. The yearly number should head to 2.7% from 2.6%.

Personal Income should grow at a stable 0.2% while Personal Spending is expected to tick up from 0.3% to 0.5%.

At 13:45, the Chicago Purchase Managers Index for August will be released. The previous number was at 45.3, in contraction. The August number is anticipated to remain in contraction at 45.5.

The last data for this Friday will be the final University of Michigan numbers for August:

Consumer Sentiment is expected to head from 67.8 to 68.

The 5-year Inflation expectations number should remain stable at 3%.

Equities are set to close this week on a positive note. Asian indices all closed in the green. European and US equities are far from done for this Friday, although they are up on the day. 

The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 67.5% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 32.5% chance for a 50 bps cut.  Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 48.4%, while there is a 42.4% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps 50 bps) below the current levels and a 9.2% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps 75 bps) basis points lower.