Current trend

The NZD/USD pair is holding above the highs of the annual range at 0.6234 due to the poor positions of the American currency.

Tomorrow at 00:45 (GMT 2), data on the Q2 New Zealand’s terms of foreign trade is due. Export prices may increase from –0.3% to 2.8% and import prices from –5.1% to 0.5%. In addition, the volume of exports may add 6.3%, contributing to an increase in the index of terms of foreign trade to 2.6%. In turn, if the Global Dairy Trade price index, recording the change in the cost of dairy products in the country, rises from 5.5%, supporting the national currency.

The American dollar has shown a reversal, holding at 101.20 in USDX, supported by macroeconomic statistics. The July core price index of personal consumption expenditures remained at 2.6%, contrary to forecasts for growth of 2.7% YoY and 0.2% MoM. The broader indicator was 2.5% YoY, as before, and accelerated from 0.1% to 0.2% MoM, confirming the maintenance of stable dynamics in the sector.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is correcting, trying to consolidate above the resistance line of the sideways channel 0.6220–0.5870.

Technical indicators are holding the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, holding at a significant distance, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6284, 0.6370.

Support levels: 0.6216, 0.6133.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6284, with the target at 0.6370. Stop loss — 0.6250. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 0.6216, with the target at 0.6133. Stop loss — 0.6250.