- EUR/USD strengthens at the expense of a weak US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its downside to near 101.00. The Greenback faces sharp selling pressure as market speculation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday soars.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00% in September has increased sharply to 43% from 14% after the US PPI data release.
- Thursday’s PPI data showed that the producer inflation grew at a slower-than-expected pace year-over-year in August. The headline inflation rose by 1.7%, slower than the estimates of 1.8% and from 2.1% in July, downwardly revised from 2.2%. In the same period, the core producer inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose steadily by 2.4%, slower than expectations of 2.5%.
- A slower pace in the price increase of goods and services at factory gates suggests a sluggish consumer spending trend, which historically prompts Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut bets.
- Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data for September, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The sentiment data is estimated to have remained almost steady at 68.0 from the prior release of 67.9.
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