- Bets that the Federal Reserve will further lower borrowing costs by 125 basis points in 2024 after last week's jumbo 50 bps rate cut pushed the non-yielding Gold price to a fresh record high on Monday.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, investors are now pricing in another oversized rate cut at the November policy meeting, which caps a modest US Dollar recovery from the YTD low.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted on Monday that the balance of risks had shifted away from high inflation to a further weakening of the labor market, warranting a lower interest rate.
- Adding to this, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the recent data show convincingly that the US is on a sustainable path to price stability and that risks to the labour market have increased.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the labor market deterioration typically happens quickly and that keeping rates high does not make sense when you want things to stay where they are.
- On the data front, a survey compiled by S&P Global showed that business activity in the Eurozone unexpectedly contracted sharply, while business activity in the US was steady in September.
- Additional details of the flash US PMI showed that average prices charged for goods and services rose at the fastest pace in six months, pointing to an acceleration in inflation in the coming months.
- This comes on top of the hypothesis that rate cuts implemented to stimulate the economy occasionally lead to rising prices and could benefit the commodity's status as a hedge against inflation.
- Israeli airstrikes on Monday against what it said are Hezbollah weapons sites in southern and eastern Lebanon killed nearly 500 people, raising the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
- This, along with the US political uncertainty and a bleak global economic outlook, suggests that the path of least resistance for the safe-haven precious metal remains to the upside.
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