- Minutes from the September FOMC meeting revealed that a majority supported the 50 basis point rate cut as the committee was confident of inflation moving toward the 2% goal.
- Some participants, however, indicated that they would have preferred only a 25 bps rate reduction, citing still elevated inflation, solid economic growth, and a low unemployment rate.
- Moreover, there was a consensus that the outsized rate cut would not lock the Federal Reserve into any specific pace for future cuts, lifting the US Dollar to a nearly two-month high.
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan pointed to meaningful uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook, though argued that she favored smaller rate reductions going forward.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins stressed that policy is not on a pre-set path and will remain data-dependent and that it is important to preserve healthy labor market conditions.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that one or two more rate cuts this year are likely, though noted that a 50 bps cut in September does not say anything about the size of next cuts.
- Traders are now pricing in a greater chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by only 25 bps in November and over a 20% probability that it will keep rates on hold in November.
- The yield on the rate-sensitive two-year US government bond shot to its highest yield since August 19 and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to levels not seen since July 31.
- Investors remained wary of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, with Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promising that a strike against the latter would be "lethal, precise and surprising".
- This, along with some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, lends some support to the safe-haven Gold price during the Asian session on Thursday.
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