Canada releases jobs figures for September today, and the consensus is centred around a solid 27k employment print, with unemployment inching up from 6.6% to 6.7%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Room for hawkish repricing to offer help to the CAD

“If the numbers prove to be close to consensus, we doubt the Bank of Canada will be rushed into a 50bp cut later this month. Markets are pricing in 48bp for 23 October meeting and 70bp in total by year-end, which looks a bit overblown on the dovish side, in our view.”

“Accordingly, we see some room for hawkish repricing to offer help to the Canadian dollar, which has remained under pressure against USD despite higher oil prices.”

“We had previously identified room for CAD’s outperformance against other commodity currencies and could see another leg lower in AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD today before the expected Chinese stimulus story over the weekend gives some help to the antipodeans.”