- The futures market implies a less than 50% chance that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates by 10 basis points before the end of this year in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's dovish turn earlier this October.
- Moreover, a drop in Japan's real wages for the first time in three months, declining household spending and signs that price pressures from raw material costs were subsiding cast doubts over how aggressively the BoJ could raise rates.
- China’s finance ministry hinted at more debt issuance amid efforts to shore up the domestic economy and said that the central government has room for a deficit increase, though fell short of providing specific details of the stimulus.
- Investors, however, seem optimistic that comprehensive measures will be introduced to stabilize key sectors of the economy and further took cues from the recent rally in the US equity indices, which touched record highs on Friday.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.8% and the core gauge climbed 2.8% on a yearly basis in September, both coming in slightly above market expectations.
- This comes on top of last Thursday's hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures and closes the door for another jumbo rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, pushing the US Dollar back closer to a two-month top.
- That said, the US central bank is still expected to continue lowering interest rates amid signs of labor market weakness and the BoJ is anticipated to hike rates again by the year-end, which caps the upside for the USD/JPY pair.
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