EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, correcting after a noticeable decline the day before, which returned the instrument to the local lows of August 2. There is relatively little macroeconomic data released at the start of the week, and investors are still debating the prospects for further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). Last week, the European regulator cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, but stopped short of claiming that a sustainable trend towards a reduction in the rate had formed. The US Fed is expected to adjust the value by –25 basis points during the November meeting: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, markets are counting on a similar scenario with a probability of 85.0%, while another 15.0% of analysts are considering the possibility of keeping the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. In turn, macroeconomic statistics from Germany on producer inflation, presented the day before, somewhat strengthened investors’ faith that officials will continue to take a "dovish" position. The Producer Price Index in September fell 0.5% after increasing by 0.2% in the previous month, while analysts expected –0.2%, and in annual terms the indicator fell from –0.8% to –1.4%. Today, ECB representatives will speak, including the President of the regulator, Christine Lagarde. In turn, American investors will pay attention to the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (FRB) Patrick Harker, as well as the publication of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: according to forecasts, the indicator will rise from –21.0 points to –18.0 points in October.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with upward dynamics, recovering after a noticeable decline the day before. The instrument is once again testing the psychological level of 1.3000 for a breakout, developing generally multidirectional dynamics in the ultra-short/short term. Some support for the pound continues to be provided by the macroeconomic statistics published in the UK last week: on Friday, markets took note of the significant growth in Retail Sales in annual terms in September from 2.3% to 3.9% with a forecast of 3.2%, in monthly terms the indicator slowed from 1.0% to 0.3%, while analysts expected –0.3%, and the indicator excluding fuel accelerated from 2.2% to 4.0% with expectations of 3.2%. Friday's statistics from the US, in turn, were mixed: Building Permits issued in September fell 2.9% after rising 4.6% in the previous month, and the Housing Starts fell by 0.5% after rising 7.8%. Meanwhile, the September budget report showed a surplus of 64.0 billion dollars after a deficit of –380.0 billion dollars in the previous month, while experts expected a budget of 61.0 billion dollars. S&P Global's UK business activity data are due out on Thursday, with preliminary estimates suggesting the Manufacturing PMI will be adjusted to 51.4 points from 51.5 points and the Services PMI — to 52.2 points from 52.4 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing quite active growth, correcting after the decline the day before, which led to the renewal of local lows from August 16. Investors are focusing on New Zealand's trade statistics, which showed Exports increased to 5.01 billion dollars in September from 4.97 billion dollars, while Imports fell slightly to 7.12 billion dollars from 7.17 billion dollars, leading to a narrowing of the trade deficit to –9.09 billion dollars year-on-year from –9.40 billion dollars the previous month, and to –2.108 billion dollars in monthly terms from –2.306 billion dollars. The New Zealand dollar was under pressure from Chinese macroeconomic data earlier in the week, with the People's Bank of China cutting its interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.35% to 3.10%, below expectations of a cut to 3.15%. At the same time, markets remain very concerned about the country's economic development prospects, as well as the measures the government is taking to stabilize the situation. In turn, the American currency is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the United States, presented last week: in particular, Retail Sales volumes in September increased by 0.4% after increasing by 0.1% with preliminary estimates of 0.3%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 150.90 and local highs from July 31. Market activity remains quite low amid a small number of macroeconomic publications the day before, and today investors are only awaiting speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve. Analysts remain confident of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November and are also revising their forecasts for the regulator's December meeting, which could be affected by the outcome of the US presidential election. If Donald Trump wins, experts expect a tougher monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve, as well as an intensification of the so-called "tariff wars", primarily with China and the EU. Meanwhile, investors are weighing Japan's inflation data released last Friday, with the National Consumer Price Index slowing sharply to 2.5% in September from 3.0%, the CPI excluding Food and Energy falling to 2.1% from 2.0%, and the CPI excluding Fresh Food falling to 2.4% from 2.8%, against preliminary estimates of 2.3%. In turn, Friday's statistics from the US reflected a 2.9% drop in the number of Building Permits issued in September after a 4.6% increase in the previous month, while Housing Starts fell by 0.5% after a 7.8% increase.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows moderate growth, developing an upward momentum formed in the ultra-short and short term. The instrument is testing 2735.00 for a breakout, holding close to the record highs updated the day before. As before, support for quotes is provided by factors of geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. In addition, market participants are increasingly focusing on the upcoming US presidential elections on November 5, which could result in a victory for Donald Trump and a very noticeable change in the vector of both foreign and domestic policy. Investors expect further monetary easing by the world's leading central banks, including the US Federal Reserve. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut by the standard 25 basis points in November is about 85.0%, while another 15.0% of analysts predict that the value will remain unchanged. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) adjusted the indicator by –25 basis points, but officials did not specify the future outlook for monetary policy, noting that decisions will be made based on the situation in the economy. In turn, the US dollar received some support last week from macroeconomic data on Retail Sales: in September, their volumes added 0.4% after increasing by 0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%, and the indicator excluding autos accelerated from 0.2% to 0.5%, contrary to preliminary estimates of 0.1%.