Australia Q3 CPI inflation expected to fall back into RBA target range

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  • The Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index is foreseen at 2.3% in September. 
  • Quarterly CPI inflation expected below 3%, but core figures are still seen as too high.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet in early November to decide on monetary policy.
  • The Australian Dollar could find some near-term demand on higher-than-anticipated CPI readings. 

Australia will publish fresh inflation-related figures on Wednesday, kick-starting a row of global first-tier releases that should grant volatility across the FX board. Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) fell to a nearly three-month low against the US Dollar (USD), with the latter benefiting from prevalent demand for safety. 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish two different inflation gauges: the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter of 2024 and the September Monthly CPI, which measures annual price pressures over the past twelve months. The quarterly report includes the Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) favorite inflation gauge. 

The RBA will have a monetary policy meeting next week and the outcome will be announced on November 5. The Australian central bank has kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% for roughly a year, and a rate cut remains out of sight.



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