EUR/JPY PRICE ANALYSIS: BULLS NEED TO WAIT FOR STRENGTH ABOVE 200-DAY SMA, AROUND 165.00

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  • EUR/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day and climbs closer to the weekly top.
  • The BoJ uncertainty continues to undermine the JPY and lends support to the cross.
  • A neutral technical setup warrants caution for bulls amid the German political crisis. 

The EUR/JPY cross builds on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the 163.25-163.20 horizontal support, or the weekly low and gains some follow-through traction on Wednesday. This marks the third day of a positive move and lifts spot prices to the top end of the weekly range, around the 164.60-164.65 region during the first half of the European session.

The uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate-hike plans is seen undermining the Japanese Yen (JPY) and turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross. That said, speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene in the FX market to prop up the domestic currency, along with a weaker risk tone, should limit losses for the safe-haven JPY. Furthermore, a political crisis in Germany – the Eurozone's largest economy – continues to weigh on the shared currency and should cap gains for the currency pair. 

Moreover, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution for bulls and suggest that any subsequent move up is more likely to face stiff resistance near the 165.00 psychological mark, or the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A sustained move beyond should lift the EUR/JPY cross towards the 165.45 hurdle en route to the 165.90-166.00 supply zone. This is followed by a multi-year peak, around the 166.65-166.70 area touched in October, which if cleared should pave the way for the resumption of a two-month-old uptrend. 




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