Current dynamics

The NZD/USD pair has broken through the support level of 0.5860 and is trying to consolidate below it after the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand.

Thus, in October, the dynamics of the composite business activity index amounted to 46.2 points, below the forecast of 47.3 points and the previous value of 46.4 points, while the indicator in the services sector adjusted from 45.7 points to 46.0 points, not meeting the expectations of 47.0 points. The index of producer purchase prices in quarterly terms accelerated by 1.9% compared to preliminary estimates of 1.0%, and selling prices - by 1.5% against 0.9%, which may also increase consumer inflation, supporting the national currency exchange rate, since officials of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may postpone the interest rate cut at the meeting on November 27.

The long-term trend is downward, and within its framework the price has broken through the support level of 0.5860, after consolidation below which the next target will be the 2023 minimum in the area of 0.5790–0.5750, and then the area of 0.5600 and 0.5550 (the 2022 minimum). If the support level of 0.5860 is maintained and growth occurs, long positions with targets of 0.6035 and 0.6120 will become relevant. The RSI indicator (14) is approaching the oversold area, reflecting the likelihood of an upward correction in the medium term.

The medium-term trend remains downward: last week, quotes overcame zone 3 (0.5959–0.5945) and headed to zone 4 (0.5819–0.5805), where a correction to the trend resistance area of 0.5993–0.5979 is expected, after which short positions with a target at the weekly minimum of 0.5843 will become relevant.

Support and resistance levels

Resistance levels: 0.6035, 0.6120, 0.6220.

Support levels: 0.5790, 0.5750, 0.5600, 0.5550.

Trading scenarios

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.5885 with a target of 0.6030 and a stop-loss of 0.5835. Implementation period: 7-9 days.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.5830 with a target of 0.5750 and a stop loss of 0.5864.