ICE Brent has been trading flat after a sharp fall on Monday as the market assesses the Middle East's new dynamics. Israel and Hezbollah have announced a 60-day ceasefire agreement, effective immediately. This time window could be used to discuss a longer-lasting peace agreement. The focus now shifts to the implementation of the current agreement and how it affects ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip or the Israel-Iran conflict, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.         

Crude oil prices continue to face stiff resistance around $75

“Weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that crude oil inventory in the US dropped by 5.9m barrels over the last week compared to market expectations of a marginal draw. For refined products, distillate and gasoline stocks increased by 2.5m barrels and 1.8m barrels respectively. The more widely followed EIA report will be released today.”

“OPEC is scheduled to meet this weekend and expectations are that the group could further delay its plans to increase production by 180k bbls/d in January. In the last meeting, the group had postponed its supply increment plans from December to January.”