Vietnam’s $10 Billion France Deal and Deepening U.S. Ties Signal Strategic Shift for Markets

Vietnam’s recent $10 billion agreement with France and its expanding trade relationship with the United States are reshaping the country’s economic landscape and sending important signals to global markets. EBC Financial Group (EBC) examines how these developments are influencing capital flows, sector rotation, and Vietnam’s positioning as a regional economic hub.

France–Vietnam Pact: Major Investment and Sector Boosts

On May 26, during French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to Hanoi, Vietnam and France signed more than $10 billion in agreements across aerospace, energy, infrastructure, and pharmaceuticals—the largest French investment initiative in Vietnam to date. Key deals include the purchase of 20 Airbus A330neo aircraft for VietJet, cooperation on nuclear energy, rail and maritime transport, satellite technology, and vaccine development with Sanofi.

France is already Vietnam’s fourth-largest EU trade partner, and these new agreements are expected to accelerate Vietnam’s ambitions to become a regional hub for clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and technology exports. In 2024, total trade between Vietnam and the EU reached $68.4 billion, with Vietnam recording a $35 billion surplus—up from $28.7 billion in 2023. The deals reinforce Vietnam’s appeal as an investment destination amid ongoing EU diversification strategies.

U.S.–Vietnam Ties: Expanding Without the Tug-of-War

Vietnam is also strengthening its commercial and strategic ties with the United States, focusing on semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy, and AI-driven manufacturing—all key to Washington’s “China+1” and de-risking strategies. Total goods trade between the U.S. and Vietnam reached $136.6 billion in 2024, up 19.3% from the previous year, making Vietnam America’s seventh-largest trade partner.

The U.S. has pledged ongoing support for Vietnam’s digital economy and technology sector through the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership formalized in late 2023. This dual engagement with both France and the U.S. allows Vietnam to attract “multi-aligned capital without becoming beholden to any single power bloc,” according to David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd.

Market Reactions and Sector Signals

EBC analysts highlight three key signals for traders and markets:

• Currency Volatility: As foreign investment inflows accelerate, the Vietnamese đồng (VND) could see increased fluctuations, especially around policy recalibrations or interest rate changes.

• Infrastructure & Equity Repricing: Large-scale projects in energy and transport may lead to valuation shifts in local infrastructure, logistics, and construction stocks.

• Sector Rotation: The joint focus by France and the U.S. on semiconductors, green tech, and pharmaceuticals is likely to buoy Vietnamese companies in these sectors, particularly those with cross-border joint ventures or state-backed expansion plans.

Broader Implications: Vietnam as a Regional Hub

Vietnam’s calibrated diplomacy and economic reforms are transforming it into a bridge between Western and Asian capital, offering resilience and flexibility in a fragmented global economy. Rather than aligning exclusively with any single bloc, Vietnam is leveraging its strategic neutrality to attract investment and enhance its export-led growth model.

EBC sees Vietnam’s evolving role as more than just an export story—it’s a long-term thesis for traders seeking opportunities in currency markets, sector-specific equities, and cross-border trade strategies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.