​EBC Markets Briefing | Oil's bull run snaps as truce holds

Oil was set to pare some gains on easing concerns over Middle East supply risks, although prices rose on Friday as the summer driving season ramped up fuel demand in the US.

Options markets suggest the probability of a disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is just 4% following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Thursday.

They also show a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in three months and a 28% probability they would exceed $70, according to the bank. The ceasefire deal appeared to be holding.

But Iranian authorities have carried out a wave of arrests and multiple executions of people suspected of links to Israeli intelligence agencies, which many fear is a way to silence dissent.

US crude oil and fuel inventories fell more expected last week as refining activity and demand rose, according to the EIA. Adding to price support, the dollar index was close to a three-year low.

Asia's crude oil imports surged in June to the highest level in two and a half years. The rationale could be the low prices in April, when most of the June arriving cargoes were sold to Asia.

Brent crude has returned to the level before Israel attacked Iran, and 50 SMA acts as a support. It will likely be bound by a tight range until more clarity on trade talks, so it is recommended to sell the rally.

EBC Forex Market Analysis Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC Industry In-depth Analysis or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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