​EBC Markets Briefing | Oil prices shrug off strong NFP report

Oil prices were little changed on Friday as a solid job market bolstered the case for the Fed keeping interest rates on hold, with market focus on Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries.

The 90-day pause on higher tariffs ends next week, and several large trading partners have not clinched a trade deal. But Washington has eased export restrictions on China for chip design software and ethane.

Brent crude will likely retrace to around $60 per barrel by early next year, with the market being well supplied and geopolitical risk abating following the Israel-Iran de-escalation, Morgan Stanley said in a note on Monday.

Analysts have marginally lifted their oil price forecasts after escalation in the Middle East, but rising OPEC+ supply and a tempered demand outlook continue to weigh on crude, a Reuters poll showed.

According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, higher than market expectations for a draw of around 3.5 million. Gasoline inventories also increased by approximately 4.2 million barrels.

China's oil imports from Iran surged in June, reaching record levels as shipments ramped up due to increased demand from independent refineries, said Mehr News Agency.

Brent crude has rebounded off the 50 SMA, but upside momentum is petering out. Considering heightened uncertainty about trade talks, we expect the price to weaken before the dust settles.

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