The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Forecast – August 1, 2025

Hey guys, what do you think about today's NFP figure? The previous number was 147K in June. Many analysts think NFP will be underperform at 106K Jobs, and frankly me too. Consumer demand is cooling, tariff-driven is biting, and corporate hiring is slowing. Unemployment could tick up beyond 4.2%, and wage growth may disappoint.
 

My USD Outlook:  

A weaker-than-expected report will likely trigger USD selling across the board.

• EUR/USD could push toward 1.1050
• GBP/USD may reclaim 1.2850
• USD/JPY might dip below 153.00
• USD/CAD could retreat toward 1.3700, especially with Canada’s trade resilience
• Equities: Could rally short-term on hopes of rate cuts
• Bonds: Yields may fall as rate cut expectations rise
• CAD/USD: The Canadian dollar might recover some ground if USD softens

If the report on the NFP figure beats expectations:

• USD: Strengthens on Fed rate hike potential
• Equities: May dip due to tighter monetary outlook
• Commodities: Gold and oil could face pressure from a stronger dollar

 
But we'll know that for sure at 8.30AM (GMT-4)! The Fed’s rate cut timeline could accelerate if this data confirms economic softness. I’m watching for volatility spikes and breakout setups—stay nimble.