​EBC Markets Briefing | Yen drops with focus on Japan election

The yen weakened to a two-month low on Tuesday as attention in Japan turned to who may join the cabinet of fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi after her party leadership victory following Ishiba's resignation.

The PM candidate is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics" in favour of loose monetary policy, fiscal spending and structural reforms. Despite higher inflation, she has voiced opposition to the BOE's rate hikes.

Last week, Takaichi reportedly expressed misgivings about the US-Japan trade deal, and said on a Fuji TV programme that a "do-over" of the agreement was not off the table.

However, investors are concerned about her call for a hardline stance towards China and a plan to revise Japan's pacifist constitution, especially Article 9, which renounced right to wage war.

The last time the yen weakened to the 150-level was in August, which prompted an intervention by the country's Ministry of Finance. A weaker yen could also attract more criticism from Washington.

Japan's government said on Monday that the economy was recovering moderately – a sign of the necessity of QT. In the latest economic report, it raised its assessment of consumer spending.

The yen has largely moved in a tight range between 146 and 151 per dollar, so we expect it to rise further towards 149 per dollar. Another leg lower could be in the making If 151 does not hold.

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