​EBC Markets Briefing | Oil market quiet; Intel optimism remained

Oil prices were choppy on Monday following unexpected military action in Venezuela. Traders are preparing for a packed week of economic data releases in the first full trading week of the year.

Venezuela's oil production outlook this year will depend on how US sanctions policy evolves, Goldman Sachs analysts said, after Trump deposed Venezuelan President Maduro.

The bank's forecasts remained unchanged with Brent's average at $56 and WTI at $52. But it warned that potential rise in the long-term supply adds downside risks to forecast for 2027 and beyond.

Trumpsaid on Sunday that the US might launch a second military strike on Venezuela following if remaining members of the administration do not cooperate with his efforts to get the country "fixed."

He pledged in the immediate aftermath that the US would "run" Venezuela that holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. The cheap and viscous oil proves to be the perfect blend for American oil companies.

However, that will cost billions of dollars to rebuild gutted oil infrastructure. And crude isn't fetching the kind of prices that would make this kind of investment an easy call.

WTI crude traded firmly below 50 SMA, but bullish MACD divergence remains - a sign of rally above $58. Still the reversal of downtrend seems more unlikely given Trump's will to restore Venezuela and Iran's supply.

Asset recap

As of market close on 2 January, among EBC products, Global X Uranium ETF led gains. Uranium prices rose in 2025 due to a rising demand for nuclear power not seen in decades.

Reuters reported that Nvidia has purchased Intel shares worth $5 billion, carrying out a transaction ‌announced in September. Chipmakers continued to do the heavy lifting for risk appetite.

Adobe shares slumped, sharply underperforming a modestly higher US market. Investors were weighing whether Adobe's generative AI can lift subscription growth without denting profitability.

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