EUR/USD Forecast: Fed give it, yields take it away

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1915

• US Treasury yields reached fresh 14-month highs ahead of Wall Street’s opening.
• Tepid European data and the mixed US figures somehow dented the market’s mood.
• EUR/USD rejected from critical resistance but holding above the 1.1885 support.

The EUR/USD pair retreated from a daily high of 1.1988 and fell to 1.1908, trimming most of its Fed-related gains. The dollar returned by the hand of US Treasury yields, which made an impressive comeback during London trading hours. Ahead of Wall Street’s opening, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note surged past 1.70%, reaching 1.754% later in the day.  Meanwhile, the  European Medicines Agency has ruled that the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine is safe, despite some concerns over possible side effects related to blood clots.

On the data front, the EU published the January Trade Balance, which posted a modest surplus of €6.3 billion, well below the expected €25.3 billion. On the other hand, the US published the March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, which jumped to 51.8, much better than anticipated. The country also published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 12, which missed expectations, up to 770K.  Friday will be a quieter day, as Germany will publish the February Producer Price Index, while the US won’t release macroeconomic data.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades near daily lows the mentioned low as Wall Street took a turn to the worse heading into the close, with the DJIA down after reaching a fresh all-time high. From a technical point of view, the pair is neutral-to bearish. The 4-hour chart shows that the advance failed around a bearish 100 SMA, while the price is currently hovering around a flat 20 SMA. Technical indicators are aiming to recover ground within neutral levels, lacking momentum. Overall, the risk remains skewed to the downside, with increased chances of a bearish extension once below 1.1885.

Support levels: 1.1885 1.1840 1.1795

Resistance levels: 1.1980 1.2025 1.2070

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