EUR/USD: Bears catch a breather below 1.1800 ahead of German CPI

• EUR/USD fails to extend corrective pullback after declining to fresh low since November 12.
• USTR Tai eyes to develop “more positive and productive” trade ties with EU.
• UK, France and Germany call for pandemic treaty.
• EU Business Climate, Consumer Confidence adds to catalysts but risk news will be the key to follow.

EUR/USD fades recovery moves from multi-day low while easing to 1.1768 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The currency major refreshed the yearly low the previous day as the US dollar benefited from the bond rout. Also weighing on the quote was the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Europe and upbeat US data.

It should, however, be noted that upbeat trade discussions between US Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai and multiple European Union (EU) diplomats seemed to have offered the latest upside push to the EUR/USD prices and favored the risks.

Also on the positive side could be the UK Telegraph’s news suggesting a new era of solidarity in the wake of COVID-19 as Germany, France and the UK call for a treaty favoring the cross-border cooperation to battle the pandemic.

Meanwhile, USTR Tai’s support to strengthening cooperation on non-market economies, including China suggests the looming risk.

On the other hand, US President Joe Biden’s $3.0 trillion stimulus recently fades its allure amid chatters over the tax hike. Further, the hedge-fund frenzy of over $20 billion and month-end consolidation are an extra burden on the risk-on mood.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print 0.13% intraday gains while the US dollar and Treasury yields stay firmer by the press time.

Moving on, a preliminary reading of Germany’s March month Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, expected 2.0% YoY versus 1.6% prior, will be the key amid chatters of reflation fears and the ECB’s bond purchase moves. Ahead of that, Eurozone Consumer Confidence for March, expected to remain unchanged at 10.8%, as well as Business Climate figures for the said month, prior -0.14, will be the key. It should be noted that the early signals of the US employment report suggest upbeat prints for March and can keep the US dollar on the front foot.

Considering the inflation pressure’s impact on the ECB’s bond purchase, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, “The lifts are expected, but any upward surprises may not be well tolerated. The ECB’s net PEPP purchases are currently averaging around EUR20bn, versus an average EUR12.5bn ahead of the ECB’s policy announcement earlier this month on increasing Q2 bond interventions. The ECB has plenty of room to increase its purchases to lean against unwarranted tightening in financing conditions.”

Technical analysis

Failures to regain above the 1.1800 threshold, not to forget the 200-day SMA level of 1.1873, keeps EUR/USD sellers hopeful to visit November 2020 low near 1.1600.