US Q1 GDP, jobs report, Mag7 earnings and Trump's 100 days mark all this week

EU mid-market update: Markets ponder trade war stalemate while gearing up for earnings and data deluge; US Q1 GDP, jobs report, Mag7 earnings and Trump's 100 days mark all this week.

- Little impactful news to change sentiment from Friday close. No substantial developments on trade war front. US Treasury Sec Bessent on weekend said he did not know if Trump had spoken with Xi but the '200 deals' Trump referred to were regarding sub-deals, not the main negotiations. China has also refuted that Xi and Trump had a call recently. CBOE VIX approx. 25.

- President Trump expressed disappointment with Russia’s recent missile strikes on civilian areas and urged President Putin to halt the attacks and negotiate a deal, noting that President Zelenskiy now seems more composed and willing to reach an agreement. Trump said that there was no justification for targeting cities and suggested using banking restrictions or secondary sanctions to pressure Russia.

- Huawei is reportedly developing the Ascend 910D AI chip to rival Nvidia’s H100—approaching Chinese tech firms to test early samples as soon as late May—though it remains in early-stage testing before performance validation and customer readiness. Traders are also circulating unverified social media chatters and Chinese press report that DeepSeek's next R2 AI model is nearing its release.

- Earnings will be main catalyst this week, with 1/3 of SP500 reporting. European holiday on Thurs will compress some European earnings into Wed and Fri.

- Data also important, with GDP figures from Spain, France, Germany and Eurozone. Spain set to outperform region, sheltered better from tariffs than its peers. For US, very heavy flow of data. Tues: trade balance, JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence. Weds: ADP Employment, Treasury Quarterly Funding announcement, Q1 GDP, Chicago PMI and PCE Price Index. Thurs: Challenger job cuts, manufacturing PMI. Fri: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, factory orders and durable goods.

- Asia closed higher with Nifty50 outperforming +1.1%. EU indices +0.3-0.7%. US futures -0.1% to -0.2%. Gold -1.0%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.2%, WTI -0.2%; Crypto: BTC +0.8%, ETH 0.0%.

Asia:

- Japan Top FX Diplomat Mimura reiterated US side did not say "strong Yen, weak Dollar" was desirable; Reports of US Treas Sec Bessent calling for strong Yen 'completely untrue'.

- China State Planner NDRC Vice Head Zhao stated to closely monitor domestic and external changes, improve policy toolkit; to fully prepare contingency plans.

- PBOC Dep Gov Zou noted that investor concerns about USD asset risks were 'rising'; USD/CNY had stabilized at about 7.30; Reiterated stance that would cut RRR, interest rates at the appropriate time.

- China said to be pushing forward a major consolidation plan to restructure its fragmented semiconductor equipment sector, cutting more than 200 domestic firms down to just 10 core players.

- S&P warned Australia AAA sovereign rating ‘at risk’ from election promises [elections due to held on May 3rd (Sat)].

Europe

- ECB governors reportedly see an increasing likelihood of a rate cut in June.

- ECB Chief Lagarde noted that global inflation was projected to gradually decline; Euro region inflation was expected to hover around 2%; Downside risks to the economic growth have increased.

- ECB's Knot (Netherlands) said Jun ECB meeting will be 'really complicated'. way too early to take a position if June decision was a rate cut or a hold.

- ECB’s Vujcic (Croatia) noted that current tariffs were not the worst scenario for Europe.

- ECB's Simkus (Lithuania) noted that uncertainty led in many cases to a more deflationary environment. ECB might need to lower interest rates further due to US tariffs and slowing inflation. Should not wait for the outcome of US trade talks to take its next decision.

- ECB’s Kazaks (Latvis) said to signal that at least one more cut may not be very controversial, but the economic picture would have to become much weaker for that to happen and to weigh down on inflation further.

Americas

- Pres Trump reiterated stance that would not drop China tariffs unless they gave us something; Opening up China would be a big win; Reiterated that another tariff pause was unlikely.

- USTR Greer: Had productive meeting with South Korean counterpart; Both sides agreed to engage in technical talk.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.44% at 522.74, FTSE +0.35% at 8,444.75, DAX +0.45% at 22,336.10, CAC-40 +0.55% at 7,577.40, IBEX-35 +0.61% at 13,434.55, FTSE MIB +0.51% at 37,539.00, SMI +0.19% at 11,975.40, S&P 500 Futures -0.21%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices opened higher across the board and remained upbeat through the early part of the session; potential progress on Ukraine and positive comments on trade seen supporting risk appetite; among sectors leading the way higher are industrials and financials; lagging sectors include real estate and health care; Mediobanca offers to acquire Banca Generali; Merck KGaA to acquire SpringWorks; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Vivendi and Deutsche Boerse.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Deliveroo [ROO.UK] +16.5% (DoorDash offer).

- Financials: Plus500 [PLUS.UK] -1.5% (prelim Q1 results, sees FY25 ahead of expectations), Unicaja Banco [UNI.ES] +1.5% (Q1 results above estimates).

- Healthcare: Merck KGaA [MRK.DE] -0.5% (acquires Springworks at $47/shr in cash), Valneva [VLA.FR] -7.0% (French health authorities decided to suspend the use of IXCHIQ in persons aged 65 years and older pending further investigation).

- Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] +1.5% (Spirit Aerosystems divests certain assets and sites involved in the production of Airbus aerostructures to Airbus; Airbus also to provide $200M in lines of credit), Traton [8TRA.DE] +4.5% (Q1 results), Maersk [MAERSKB.DK] -2.0% (analyst downgrade).

- Technology: Marlowe [MRL.UK] +2.5% (trading update).

Speakers

- ECB's Villeroy (France) stated that still had margin for rate cuts in Europe; Did not expect recession in France or Europe.

- Hungary Econ Min Nagy noted that Q1 GDP growth to be small.

- China Foreign Ministry reiterates stance that was not engaged in trade talks with the US.No call between leaders recently.

Currencies/fixed income

USD was steady as the trading week began. Monday saw a quiet session but economic releases will ramp up as the week progresses.

- EUR/USD at 1.1350 by mid-session. Pair facing some headwinds as ECB speak continued to see disinflation process continuing, hence more rate cut to come.

USD/JPY above 143.50 as the upcoming BOJ rate decision this week sees no change on policy for the time being. Japan top FX offical noted that reports of US Treas Sec Bessent calling for strong Yen was 'completely untrue'.

- 10-year German Bund yield at 2.50% and 10-year Gilt yield at 4.49%. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.26%.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Apr Consumer Confidence: -7.4 v -8.2 prior; Business Confidence: -10 v -5 prior.

- (SE) Sweden Mar PPI M/M: -3.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v +3.4% prior.

- (NO) Norway Mar Trend Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.1% prior.

- (DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: +1.6% v -0.1% prior.

- (ES) Spain Mar Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6% prior; Retail Sales (unadj) Y/Y: 3.7% v 0.8% prior.

- (ES) Spain Q1 Unemployment Rate: 11.4% v 10.7%e.

- (TW) Taiwan Mar Monitoring Indicator: 34 v 37 prior.

- (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 451.1B v 448.3B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 442.6B v 439.7B prior.

- (AT) Austria Apr Manufacturing PMI: 46.6 v 46.9 prior (33rd month of contraction).

- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Trade Balance (HK$): -45.4B v -36.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: 18.5% v 15.4% prior; Imports Y/Y: 16.6% v 11.8% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €4.0B vs. €4.0B indicated in 6-month Bills (2 tranches).

- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.20% v 4.27% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.56x v 2.84x prior.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €5.0B in 3-month and 9-month BuBills.

- Sells €B vs. €3.0B indicated in 3-month BuBills.

- 05:30 (EU) European Union to sell combined €3.5B in 2034 and 2038 NGEU bonds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 06:00 (FR) France Q1 Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.927M prior.

- 06:00 (UK) Apr CBI Retailing Reported Sales: -20e v -41 prior; Total Distribution Reported Sales: No est v -32 prior.

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell €2.8-3.2B in 2034, 2035 and 2039 OLO Bonds.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.

- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell combined RON1.0B in 2027 and 2035 bonds.

- 06:00 (NO) Norway announcement on upcoming bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 06:30 (IN) India Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.3%e v 2.9% prior.

- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Current Account Balance: -$3.2Be v -$8.8B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $8.0Be v $9.3B prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Unemployment Rate: 2.4%e v 2.5% prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Trade Balance: $2.9Be v $2.2B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.9-7.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 09:00 (FI) ECB's Rehn (Finland).

- 09:00 (EU) ECB Annual Report.

- 10:30 (US) Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -14.1e v -16.3 prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 15:00 (US) Quarterly Financing estimates.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 17:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 86.8 prior.

- 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Filled Jobs M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Apr BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.4% prior.

- 22:00 (KR) South Korea Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior; Department Store Sales Y/Y: No est v -3.6% prior; Discount Store Sales Y/Y: No est v -18.8% prior.

- 22:05 (AU) RBA Assistant Gov.

- 23:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell THB55B in 3-month bills.