Daily Broad Market Recap – April 30, 2025

Market participants had plenty to deal with on Tuesday, as U.S. equity indices took cues from big tech earnings data, crude oil caved to another round of bearish updates, and top-tier U.S. inflation and growth data were printed.

Here are the updates you need to know:

Headlines:

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence for April 2025: 49.3 (50.0 forecast; 57.5 previous)
• Australia CPI growth rate for March 2025: 2.4% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 2.4% y/y previous); 0.9% q/q (0.7% q/q forecast; 0.2% q/q previous)
• Australia Private Sector Credit for March 2025: 0.5% m/m (0.6% m/m forecast; 0.5% m/m previous); 6.5% y/y (6.4% y/y forecast; 6.5% y/y previous)
• Australia Housing Credit for March 2025: 0.5% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous)
• China NBS Non Manufacturing PMI for April 2025: 50.4 (50.5 forecast; 50.8 previous)
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for April 2025: 49.0 (50.0 forecast; 50.5 previous)
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2025: 50.4 (49.8 forecast; 51.2 previous)
• Japan Leading Indicators Index for February 2025: 107.9 (107.9 forecast; 108.3 previous)
• France Flash GDP Growth Rate for March 31, 2025: 0.8% y/y (0.6% y/y forecast; 0.6% y/y previous); 0.1% q/q (0.1% q/q forecast; -0.1% q/q previous)
• Germany Retail Sales for March 2025: 2.2% y/y (3.2% y/y forecast; 4.9% y/y previous); -0.2% m/m (-0.6% m/m forecast; 0.8% m/m previous)
• Germany Import Prices for March 2025: -1.0% m/m (-0.7% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous)
• U.K. Nationwide Housing Prices for April 2025: 3.4% y/y (4.0% y/y forecast; 3.9% y/y previous); -0.6% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
• Chinese President Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations, will adjust economic policy to global change
• France Flash CPI for April 2025: 0.8% y/y (0.9% y/y forecast; 0.8% y/y previous); 0.5% m/m (0.6% m/m forecast; 0.2% previous)
• Swiss KOF Leading Indicators for April 2025: 97.1 (103.0 forecast; 103.9 previous)
• French Finance Minister Lombard said that he discussed the idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said it was not unrealistic
• Germany Unemployment Rate for April 2025: 6.3% (6.4% forecast; 6.3% previous)
• Swiss Economic Sentiment Index for April 2025: -51.6 (-10.9 forecast; -10.7 previous)
• Germany Flash GDP Growth Rate for March 31, 2025:-0.2% y/y (-0.1% y/y forecast; -0.2% y/y previous); 0.2% q/q (0.2% q/q forecast; -0.2% q/q previous)
• Euro area GDP Growth Rate Flash for March 31, 2025: 1.2% y/y (0.9% y/y forecast; 1.2% y/y previous); 0.4% q/q (0.2% q/q forecast; 0.2% q/q previous)
• Germany Flash CPI for April 2025: 0.4% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous); 2.1% y/y (2.1% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y previous)
• U.S. ADP National Employment Report for April 2025: 62.0k (110.0k forecast; 155.0k previous)
• Canada GDP for March 2025: 0.1% m/m (-0.6% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
• U.S. Advance GDP Growth Rate for Q1 2025: -0.3% q/q (0.5% q/q forecast; 2.4% q/q previous)
  • U.S. GDP Price Index Adv for March 31, 2025: 3.7% q/q (3.0% q/q forecast; 2.3% q/q previous)
  • U.S. Employment Cost – Wages for March 31, 2025: 0.8% q/q (0.8% q/q forecast; 0.9% q/q previous)
  • U.S. Real Consumer Spending Adv for March 31, 2025: 1.8% q/q (2.2% q/q forecast; 4.0% q/q previous)
• U.S. Chicago PMI for April: 44.6 (45.9 expected, 47.6 previous)
• U.S. EIA crude oil inventories revealed larger reduction of 2.7M barrels (-0.6M expected, +0.2M previous)
• Saudi officials have told allies they can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices, raising fears of price war
• U.S. core PCE price index for March: 0.0% m/m (0.1% expected, previous reading upgraded from 0.4% to 0.5%)
• U.S. pending home sales for March: 6.1% m/m (0.9% expected, 2.1% previous)
• BOC Summary of Deliberations revealed that policymakers discussed whether to hold or cut during the meeting
• U.S. President Trump reported that Canadian PM Carney suggested making a trade deal during their post-elections call, confirmed planned visit soon

Broad Market Price Action:

Even though the economic calendar was busier than usual in the Asian and London trading sessions, most asset classes were chilling in ranges, with the exception of crude oil which took hits early on.

A surprise dip to contraction in China’s official manufacturing PMI appears to be the catalyst for the dip, as the reading fell from 50.5 to 49.0 in April, suggesting that the economy may already be feeling the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Gold, which had been trying to stay afloat during Asian market hours, took a tumble during as European markets opened in a relatively cheery mood. Positive surprises in preliminary growth and inflation readings of the region’s top economies appeared to spark optimism then, along with remarks from French Finance Minister Lombard who said that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent who agreed that a zero reciprocal tariffs approach was “not unrealistic.”

Volatility spiked around the release of the U.S. advanced GDP report, which shocked the markets with a 0.3% contraction for Q1 instead of the estimated 0.2% expansion. Although, the advance GDP price index printed a sharper surge from 2.3% to 3.7% versus the 3.1% consensus, the core PCE price index released later on fell flat instead of posting the estimated 0.1% uptick.

U.S. equities, which had already been on the decline around the start of the New York session, took a beating upon seeing mostly downbeat data, although indices were able to pull back into positive territory before the close thanks to strong earnings figures from Meta and Microsoft.

Crude oil also sold off upon seeing net negative U.S. data then caught a bit of support from a larger than expected reduction in EIA oil inventories. However, the energy commodity was unable to hold on to its gains when Saudi Arabia said that they can sustained a prolonged period of low oil prices, which many interpreted to be a price war threat on its allies.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Dollar pairs had been moving in sync a few hours into the Asian session, before AUD/USD broke away from the pack in reaction to Australia’s quarterly CPI report. The figures turned out better than expected, as annual inflation held steady in Q1, likely leading Aussie traders to price in a more gradual pace of easing past May.

NZD/USD soon followed suit, shrugging off mostly weaker than expected Chinese PMI data, but broad dollar strength eventually made a comeback leading up to the London market open. The euro put up a good fight, drawing support from net positive French and German flash CPI and GDP readings, while the Loonie also held its ground despite falling crude oil prices.

The Greenback was all over the place during the release of the U.S. advance GDP report, which appeared to spark risk-off flows versus AUD, NZD, and GBP while the dollar gave up ground to lower-yielding counterparts like JPY and CHF. The flat core PCE price index triggered a more uniform bearish USD reaction, as weak inflation supported the idea of further Fed easing.

Still, USD ended mixed, as it managed to pull back up against CHF, JPY, GBP, and EUR before the session closed, possibly driven by profit-taking activity and a late rebound in risk appetite driven by upbeat U.S. earnings data.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

• BOJ Monetary Policy Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report at 3:00 am GMT
• BOJ Press Conference to follow after policy statement
• Japan Consumer Confidence at 5:00 am GMT
• Australia Commodity Prices at 6:30 am GMT
• Swiss Retail Sales at 6:30 am GMT
• Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI at 7:30 am GMT
• U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:30 am GMT
• U.S. Challenger Job Cuts at 11:30 am GMT
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 1:45 pm GMT
• ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Balance Sheet at 8:30 pm GMT
• New Zealand Building Permits at 10:45 pm GMT
• Japan Unemployment Rate at 11:30 pm GMT

Yen pairs could get an extra dose of volatility during today’s Asian trading session since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce their interest rate decision and release their quarterly Outlook Report, which contains updated estimates for growth and inflation.

After that, the spotlight could shift to U.S. jobs indicators, as the Challenger job cuts report and ISM manufacturing PMI are likely to provide more clues ahead of Friday’s NFP release. Don’t forget to keep an eye out for trade-related headlines that could impact overall market sentiment as well.

As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!