Morning briefing: Euro can head towards 1.1600-1.1800

The Dollar Index on a confirmed fall below 99 can open the doors for 98-96. The Euro on an immediate break past 1.14 can head towards 1.16-1.18. EURINR has immediate support near 94.50, above which it can bounce back towards 96.50. EURJPY and USDJPY are back within their old range of 164-160 and 145-140 respectively. AUDUSD has risen past 0.645 and can head towards 0.66. The USDCNY while trades above 7.25, a rise to 7.28/30 is possible. Pound can trade within 1.35-1.32 region for a while. USDINR faces immediate resistance at 84.70/80, below which it can again fall back towards 84 or lower.

The US Treasury and the German yields have risen sharply on Friday. A strong follow-through rise from here can take the Treasury yields further higher in the coming days. The German yields on the other hand have an immediate resistance. While that holds, they can fall back and keep the broader downtrend intact. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck in a narrow range. We will have to wait for the range to breakout on either side.

Dow Jones has risen well above 41000 and can rise towards 42000/43000. Dax is bullish for a rise to 23500 a break above which would open door for a further rise towards 24500-24800. Nifty needs to rise above 24400 to head towards 24700/25000 else a correction towards supports at 24200/23900 can be possible. Nikkei and Shanghai are closed for the day for Children’s Day and Labor Day respectively.

Crude prices have declined sharply as OPEC+ agrees another accelerated oil output hike for June, the prices remains bearish for the near term. Gold remains weak below $3,300 with a potential drop to $3,100, while Silver could test $31.5 before rebounding. Copper has bounced from $4.52 and may rise towards $4.80–$4.90. Natural gas has surged past $3.45, with potential to move up to $4.00 in the coming weeks.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis