Morning briefing: Euro slipped to 1.1196

The US and UK agreed on the trade deal of having 10% baseline tariffs on British imports. As a result, Dollar Index rose to 100.85 and Euro slipped to 1.1196. Now, if the index continues to rise further, can extend it further to 101-102. Similarly, Euro if persists bellow 1.12, can be vulnerable to fall towards 1.11-1.10. EURINR and EURJPY are trading within 97-95 and 164/65-160 region respectively. USDJPY has risen past 145 and if sustained, can head towards 146-147 in the near term. AUDUSD is back below 0.64 again and failure to rise above 0.64 can drag it further to 0.635-0.630. The USDCNY has risen well as anticipated but could face the resistance near 7.26 region. Pound is trading near the lower end of its range of 1.35-1.32. The conflict between India and Pakistan led USDINR to surge sharply to the high of 85.77 yesterday. Immediate resistance is at 86.0-86.15 which can be tested. Thereafter, whether it falls back towards 85 or rises further will have to be seen.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. A further rise breaking above the immediate resistance can take the yields higher in the coming days. That will negate our earlier view of seeing a fall. The German yields have moved up sharply and are poised at their resistance. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to move further higher and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply within its range. Need to see if it is managing to break the range on the upside to move higher or not.

Dow Jones has dipped from 41773 but could have scope to test 42000-42200 before extending its decline further. Dax looks bullish towards 24500-24800. Nifty can test 23900 on a break below 24200 but overall the long term could be bullish while above 23900. We may expect volatility admist India-Pak war escalation. Nikkei is strong today heading towards 38000-38500 while Shanghai is subdued but could eventually move up towards 3400 while above 3300.

Crude oil prices have rebounded but can remain within their respective ranges as key resistances hold. Gold has unexpectedly broken below $3,300 and looks set for further weakness, while Silver also dipped, likely staying in a $34–$32 range. Copper has turned bearish after breaking support, and natural gas remains under pressure below $3.75, with potential downside towards $3.50–$3.40 if resistance isn't breached.

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