EUR: 1.13 remains the anchor – ING

The euro has held up better than most G10 currencies, helped by positive headlines about EU-US trade negotiations, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

1.130 is likely an anchor, with upside risks for EUR/USD

"On the data front, France posted a negative month-on-month CPI print for May, which adds to the narrative of an initial deflationary impact from tariffs on the EU. If Friday’s data from other member states confirms this trend, EUR swaps could start to price in a greater chance of ECB rates dipping below 1.75%. Today, the ECB publishes its CPI expectation surveys for April."

"EUR/USD has found support around 1.130 on several occasions over the past six weeks. If US data and Trump continue to deliver positive surprises this week, a decisive break lower is possible. Still, we doubt markets are ready to price out the USD risk premium, especially with deficit concerns recently coming to the fore."

"For now, we see 1.130 as a likely anchor, with upside risks for EUR/USD still dominant in the weeks ahead."