Euro (EUR) is strong and entering Thursday’s NA session with a 1.0% gain, propelled by the combination of trade-related sentiment and fundamentally-driven ECB headlines that have pushed it to levels last seen in November 2021, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
EUR is propelled by trade headlines and neutral ECB comments
"The EUR’s early Asian session gains were the result of President Trump’s latest comments on trade but the bulk of the EUR’s strength has followed comments from the ECB’s Simkus, offering the first unequivocal endorsement of a pause on rates."
"Policymakers had offered a muddled message in the period following last Thursday’s ECB, unable commit to the conclusion of the latest easing cycle. The latest shifts in the outlook for relative central bank policy are material and should provide the basis for an extension of the latest gains."
"Our latest forecast update, released Wednesday, has a 2025 year end EURUSD target of 1.16 and a 2026 year end target of 1.22."
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