Rising treasury yields rip through markets: Gold to Crude Oil—Nine‐asset intermarket breakdown

As September T-Bond futures flirt with 114.00 (10-yr yields), every major market—from safe-haven gold to energy-sensitive oil and rate-linked FX pairs—faces a pivotal inflexion.

Introduction

A sustained sell-off in U.S. T-Bond futures, which has pushed yields toward 113.45–113.20, is driving 10-year yields higher, repricing risk-free rates and forcing investors to reassess their exposure across assets. In this cross-market playbook, we dissect the critical technical inflexion points, fundamental yield drivers, and precise levels you need to watch in bonds, gold, equities, currencies, and oil—so you can stay ahead of the volatile bond-driven repricing.

US T-Bond futures (September 25)

Intermarket context: Treasuries are the global funding benchmark. A weekly close below 114.00 would lift 10-year yields sharply, raising borrowing costs, strengthening the USD, and putting broad-based pressure on yield-sensitive assets. Conversely, a rebound back above 114.51–114.67 would signal easing financial conditions, relieving funding stresses and supporting risk-asset rallies.

Price-action overview:

• After tagging 116.10, Sep bonds gapped from 115.17 into 114.51–114.00, closing at 114.26.
• 114.00 is the make-or-break pivot between continued breakdown and a potential recovery.

Technical cue:

• Bearish close < 114.00 → targets 113.45–113.20, then 112.14–111.89.
• Bullish reclaim > 114.51–114.67 → targets 114.92, 115.03, 115.17, and beyond.

Fundamental trigger:

• If bonds continue down (yields ↑), tightening conditions will amplify U.S. dollar strength, pressure equities, curb credit expansion, and weigh on commodities, especially long-duration and non-yielding assets.
• If bonds recover (yields ↓), easing conditions should unwind USD gains, support equity and credit rallies, and lift commodity prices.

T-Bonds M30 time frame - end of trades July 4th

Gold (GCEQ25, August 25)

Intermarket context: Gold's non-yielding nature makes it vulnerable when real yields rise, but persistent geopolitical risks and ETF inflows provide a buffer.

Price-action overview:

• Bulls defended the 3256 channel floor, spurring a bounce into the 3357–3373 supply zone, where momentum has stalled on lighter volume.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 3357–3373 → 3416, 3490, 3532
• Bearish < 3357 → 3315, 3256

Yield impact:

• If T-Bonds continue to fall (real yields ↑), gold is likely to surrender 3315, probing 3256 as households and institutions rotate out of non-yielding stores of value.
• If T-Bonds recover (real yields ↓), gold should snap above 3373, leveraging safe-haven flows to test 3416 and 3490.

Gold H4 time frame - end of trades July 4th

Nasdaq 100 (NQU2025, September 25)

Intermarket context: Tech stocks are most sensitive to changes in the discount rate, making the Nasdaq the focal point for yield repricing.

Price-action overview:

• Nine-session rally from 21,771 hit new highs, then retraced into the 22,913 pivot midpoint, acting as both resistance and support.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 22,913 → 23,038, 23,218, 23,466
• Bearish < 22,913 → 22,787, 22,631, 22,380

Yield impact:

• If T-Bonds decline further (yields ↑), growth-tech faces heavier selling, risking a slide through 22,631 into 22,380 as funding costs spike.
• If T-Bonds stabilise (yields ↓), Nasdaq should reclaim 22,913, unlocking 23,038 and higher pivot levels on renewed speculative flows.

Nasdaq 100 Futures H4 time frame - end of trades July 4th

Nasdaq 100 Futures M30/daily time frame - end of trades July 4th

S&P 500 (ESU2025, September 25)

Intermarket context: Funding-cost shifts directly skew sector leadership and index valuations via discount-rate adjustments.

Price-action overview:

• The final lap of the V-shape recovery from 5,997 stalled at 6,279–6,294 (pre-crash highs), with tightening ranges and waning internals.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 6,294 → 6,333, 6,366, 6,393, 6,420
• Bearish < 6,279 → 6,261, 6,237, 6,214, 6,185, 6,138

Yield impact:

• If T-Bond weakness persists, S&P 500 Futures may breach 6,279, testing 6,214–6,185 as higher yields raise equity discount rates.
• If bonds recover, a reprieve in yields could see the index clear 6,294, with bulls targeting 6,333 and beyond on a broad-market rebound.

S&P 500 Futures H4/daily time frame - end of trades July 4th

S&P 500 Futures M30/daily time frame - end of trades July 4th

Dow Jones (YMU2025, September ’25)

Intermarket context: Financials benefit from steeper curves, but broad-market health still hinges on the pace of yield changes.

Price-action overview:

• Nine-day rally from 42,261 paused at 45,067–44,736, with multiple tests of 44,736 in holiday-thin trading.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 45,067 → 45,335, 45,603, 45,984
• Bearish < 44,736 → 44,531, 44,468, 44,405, 44,326, 44,200, 43,900

Yield impact:

• If yields continue to rise, the Dow could break 44,736, sliding toward 44,200 as investors rotate out of equities into bonds.
• If yields retreat, expect a fresh leg above 45,067, driven by financials and cyclicals capitalising on lower funding costs.

Dow Futures H4/daily time frame - end of trades July 4th

Dow Futures M30/daily time frame - end of trades July 4th

U.S. dollar index (DXU2025, September 25)

Intermarket context: The USD rallies on yield appeal; a bond sell-off turbocharges dollar strength across the FX market.

Price-action overview:

• Trapped in the 96-37–96-80 range, the DXY holds above the weekly pivot at 96-48 but has closed lower for five consecutive weeks.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 96-80 → 97-40, 98-17
• Bearish < 96-37 → 96-00, 95-30

Yield impact:

• If T-Bonds break lower, DXY should surge past 96-80 toward 97-40, magnifying USD strength in carry-trade liquidations.
• If T-Bonds rally, look for DXY to slip back beneath 96-37, opening 95-30 as yield differentials compress.

US dollar Index weekly time frame - end of trades July 4th

US dollar Index H1/daily time frame - end of trades July 4th

USD/JPY (XJFU2025, September ’25)

Intermarket context: Ultra-low JGB yields amplify the sensitivity of USD/JPY to U.S. yield swings.

Price-action overview:

• Seven weeks of higher lows from 140.52–141.16, now locked in 143.48–144.20 consolidation on daily/4-hr charts.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 144.20 → 144.64, 145.36, 145.80
• Bearish < 143.48 → 142.32, 141.60, 140.52

Yield impact:

• If yields climb, USD/JPY is likely to break above 144.20, targeting 145.36 as carry-trade flows unwind.
• If yields ease, expect a retracement toward 143.48 and potentially 142.32 as the yield gap narrows.

USD/JPY daily/weekly time frame - end of trades July 4th

USD/JPY H4/daily time frame - end of trades July 4th

EUR/USD (M6EU2025, September 25)

Intermarket context: Euro performance hinges on the Fed-ECB policy spread—U.S. yield jumps erode EUR/USD.

Price-action overview:

• Two-month rally stalled at 1-188 resistance; last week settled just above the 1-182 floor in a tight range.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 1-188 → 1-196, 1-203
• Bearish < 1-182 → 1-177, 1-173, 1-167

Yield impact:

• If U.S. yields surge, EUR/USD is likely to fall through 1-182, probing 1-173 as the USD outperforms due to interest-rate differentials.
• If yields retreat, a pause in Treasury sell-off should allow EUR/USD to reclaim 1-188 and eye 1-196.

USD/JPY daily/weekly time frame - end of trades July 4th

Crude oil (CLQ2025, August 25)

Intermarket context: Commodities priced in USD tend to suffer when the dollar strengthens due to rising yields.

Price-action overview:

• A 15% drop from 78-40, which hit a low of 66-50, held at 65-10 for two weeks and is now trading between 65-10 and 67-00.

Technical cue:

• Bullish > 67-00 → 69-10, 71-56, 73-32
• Bearish < 65-10 → 62-86, 61-10, 58-64, 57-11, 56-64

Yield impact:

• If yields continue to climb, oil is likely to breach 65-10, accelerating toward 61-10–58-64 as USD strength chokes demand.
• If yields stabilise or fall, a weaker dollar could prop up crude above 67-00, targeting 71-56 on resumed expectations of global demand.

Crude Oil H4/weekly time frame - end of trades July 4th

Conclusion and trade ideas

Asset Bullish Trigger Bearish Trigger Primary Trade Idea

T-Bonds - Bullish Trigger > 114.51–114.67, Bearish Trigger < 114.00, Primary Trade Idea - Short breakdown; stop above 114.51

Gold - Bullish Trigger > 3357–3373, Bearish Trigger < 3357, Primary Trade Idea - Long channel breakout; stop 3357

Nasdaq - Bullish Trigger > 22,913, Bearish Trigger < 22,913, Primary Trade Idea - Short on pivot failure; stop above

S&P 500 - Bullish Trigger > 6,294, Bearish Trigger < 6,279, Primary Trade Idea - Long weekly close > 6,294; stop 6,279

Dow - Bullish Trigger > 45,067, Bearish Trigger < 44,736, Primary Trade Idea - Long hold > pivot; stop 44,736

DXY - Bullish Trigger > 96-80, Bearish Trigger < 96-37, Primary Trade Idea - Short below pivot; stop above

USD/JPY - Bullish Trigger > 144.20, Bearish Trigger < 143.48, Primary Trade Idea - Long on reclaim; stop 143.48

EUR/USD - Bullish Trigger > 1-188, Bearish Trigger < 1-182, Primary Trade Idea - Long above resistance; stop below

Crude oil - Bullish Trigger > 67-00, Bearish Trigger < 65-10, Primary Trade Idea - Short under support; stop above

Key bond pivot: Watch 114.00 in Sep T-Bond futures—below, prepare for steeper yields and a broad-market downturn; back above 114.51–114.67, rotate aggressively into yield-sensitive and risk assets.

The information provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may result in the loss of your invested capital. Readers should conduct their due diligence and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.