CAD drifts in range after disappointing jobs data – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has drifted a little lower in quiet trade so far today but movement is limited spot is trading not far off of levels seen last Friday following the weaker than expected jobs data, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

A break under 1.3720/30 targets additional USD losses

"Minor headwinds for the CAD, stemming from choppy oil prices (weaker earlier, firmer now), so-so risk appetite and some re-widening in shortterm US/Canada spreads account for the minor drift seen so far today. While last week’s employment report disappointed expectations, we think the Bank of Canada’s easing moves to date, a relatively resilient economy overall plus still sticky inflation means that a further policy easing is highly unlikely for the foreseeable future."

"USD/CAD’s estimated fair value is up a little this morning to 1.3665. Spot is up for a third day (so far) in succession after the USD rebounded from a test of retracement support in the low 1.37 area (50% of the USD’s late July advance at 1.3728) last week."

"Minor resistance at 1.3775 is holding USD gains so far on the session but some overshoot to retest the 1.38 zone cannot be ruled out amid flat, short-term trend momentum. A break under 1.3720/30 targets additional USD losses towards the mid/upper 1.36s."