EUR/USD: Indirect FX implications from Alaska summit – OCBC

President Trump and Putin will meet later in Alaska. Pair was last at 1.1686 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is mild bullish

"Trump believes there is a 75% chance of the Alaska meeting succeeding. He also said a second meeting between Putin, Zelensky and himself would be more decisive – but this is not yet confirmed. While negotiations may not be smooth and takes time, Europe potentially participating in Ukraine’s reconstruction plans at some point, may marginally lend a boost to EUR, over the medium term."

"We had previously said that a Ukraine peace deal at some point can lead to supply chain normalisation, lower energy costs, in turn reducing existing burden on corporates and households, improving sentiments and growth outlook. EUR fell overnight, as USD saw a broad rebound wing to hotter-than-expected US PPI."

"Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI is flat. 2-way trades likely. Support at 1.1630 levels (21, 50 DMAs), 1.1570 (23.6% fibo retracement of Mar low to Jul high) and 1.1450 (100 DMA). Resistance at 1.1730, 1.1780 levels."