GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Hesitation below 200.00 with upside bias intact

• The Pound weavers below the 200.00 psychological level against the Yen.
• GBP/JPY is approaching the top of a small triangle pattern.
• A break above 200.00 might send the pair towards the 201.65 area.
  

The Pound posted moderate gains on Monday, correcting higher after the last two days’ reversal. The pair, however, remains trapped within a tight range below the 200.00 psychological level, halfway through last week’s trading range.

The fundamental outlook is mixed. Recent UK data has given further reasons to BoE hawks to keep interest rates at current levels for some time, while in Japan, the strong GDP and Industrial Production data seen last week have cemented hopes of a further rate hike in the coming months.

Technical analysis: GBP/JPY is approaching the tip of a triangle pattern

A look at the 4-hour charts and we see the pair posting lower highs and higher lows in a triangle pattern over the last trading days. This is considered a continuation pattern, which suggests that the possibility of a bullish outcome is more likely.

On the upside, trendline resistance lies at the intraday high of 200.00. A clear break of that level will bring the August 13 high, at 200.25, into focus ahead of the triangle’s measured target, at the 127,2% Fibonacci extension of the August rally, at 201.70

The Bearish outcome would require a confirmation below the base of the triangle, now at 199.30. Further down, the August 14 low, at 198.65, comes into focus. A break of that level would confirm a double top at 200.25, with the measured target near the intraday support level of 197.35.