Morning briefing: EUR/USD continues to stay rangebound between 1.1800–1.1600

The Dollar Index can head towards 99-100 in the near term if it sustains above current levels. While EURUSD and EURINR continue to stay rangebound between 1.18–1.16 and 102.50/103-101.00. EURJPY will have to break 173 to strengthen to rise further, else it can trade within the 171-173 region for now. Dollar-Yen looks bullish towards 150–151. USDCNY can be vulnerable to fall towards 7.14 if breaks below 7.16 in the near term. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.655-0.645 and 1.36-1.34/33 range respectively. USDINR has limited downside potential to 87.00-86.90. Eventually it is likely to bounce back towards 87.50 and higher. US New Home sales data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields fell sharply on Friday after Powell indicated possible rate cuts in his Jackson Hole speech. Failure to rise back immediately can drag the yields lower and will reduce the chances of the rise that we were expecting. The German yields have dipped. They remain vulnerable to break their immediate support and fall more. The 10Yr GoI is moving up as expected. But there is limited upside from here as the strong resistance that is ahead can cap the upside and drag it down again.

The Dow Jones rose sharply on Friday on signal of interest rate cut by Powell. There is scope for a rally to 46000-47000. Dax continues to trade within 24500-23500. Nifty saw profit taking on Friday and has remained well below 25200. But while above 24800, a possible rise can be seen today. Nikkei could decline towards 42000-41000 initially before rising to 44000-46000 over the medium term. Shanghai has rallied well and while the strong uptrend holds, it can soon test 4000, a strong resistance.

Brent and WTI have risen as expected and can extend further towards $68–$69 and $64–$65 respectively before resuming their bearish trend. Gold and Silver have surged sharply, with Gold likely to test $3,450–$3,500 and Silver aiming for $39.50–$40.00 in the near term. Copper remains range-bound between $4.40 and $4.50, awaiting a breakout, while Natural Gas has tested crucial support near $2.6980; holding above this keeps the chances alive for a rise to $2.85–$2.90, but a break lower could drag it to $2.60–$2.50.

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