NVDA and July PCE later this week

EU mid-market update: Quiet start to week with UK markets closed for holiday; China indices rallied on new stimulus hopes; NVDA and July PCE later this week.

Notes/observations

- Quiet session with UK markets closed for banking holiday; China indices rallied after Shanghai was reported to ease home buying limits in 'outer suburbs' and China govt is now reportedly set to beef up trade-in support and extend it to services to lift consumption, with programs already tallying over CNY2.9T in sales and backed by CNY138B in central funds. Late Aug is when China Politburo Standing Committee economic meeting takes place, which usually followed by some stimulus announcement.

- After market closure on Friday, Pres Trump announced the US is launching a “major” tariff investigation into imported furniture, with a tariff rate to be set within about 50 days; Later today, Trump is scheduled to meet with South Korean president.

- German IFO reading mixed but optimism peculating; Following DHL on Friday, other European postal operators including France, Greece, Austria, the Nordics, and the U.K. are pausing or restricting U.S.-bound parcels ahead of the Aug 29 suspension of the de minimis import exemption, with Royal Mail ending existing services Tue Aug 26 and aiming to resume under the new regime Thu Aug 28.

- USD consolidates post Jackson Hole weakness; Bitcoin appears to be rethinking dovishness of Powell’s speech, but Fed futures now pricing 90% chance for Sept rate cut v 75% before Friday’s speech.

- NVDA Wed’s Earnings Results preview by TTN: Focus on the Oct guide and Rubin cadence, with checks reaffirming Rubin is on schedule (tape-out June, boards mid-2026, volume late Q3-26); near-term stock reaction likely hinges on quantified hyperscaler CapEx color in October, rack-scale NVL72 vs HGX mix, mid-70% GM, and Datacenter’s inference tilt. Watch China and plumbing: H20 license economics (~15% fee) with potential B30A/China-compliant Blackwell.

- M&A Monday: Keurig Dr Pepper confirmed to acquire JDE Peet's for €31.85 per share in cash (€15.7B). After closing, KDP plans a tax-free split into two U.S.-listed companies - Beverage Co in North America (~$11B sales) and Global Coffee Co (~$16B sales, pure-play leader) - funded with new debt and cash, supported by investment-grade aims, and an expected H1 2026 close. In other press reports, Coca-Cola reportedly considering sale of Costa Coffee and Thoma Bravo said to near EV $2.0B deal to buy Verint Systems.

- Ørsted noted BOEM’s stop-work order on the fully permitted Revolution Wind JV highlights increased U.S. offshore wind regulatory uncertainty. Note: on Friday, US posted notice of Section 232 probe into wind turbines and components.

Asia

- New Zealand Q2 Retail Sales (Ex Inflation) Q/Q: +0.5% v -0.3%e.

- BOJ Gov Ueda Jackson Hole panel comments reiterated expected tightening job market to push up wages.

- Shanghai Govt said to be no longer restricting the number of homes that eligible residents could purchase in outer suburbs effective Aug 26th.

- South Korea Pres Lee expected to discuss security, defense and tariffs with Pres Trump.

Global conflict/tensions

- President Trump said to be preventing Ukraine from firing long-range missiles into Russia in an effort to get Putin to engage in peace talks.

Europe

- UK markets closed for bank holiday.

- BOE Gov Bailey Jackson Hole comments stressed that Britain faced an "acute challenge" over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labor force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic.

- ECB chief lagarde Jackson Hole comments stressed that a jump in the share of foreign-born workers after the pandemic helped Europe bring inflation down without sharply slower growth.

- ECB's Kazaks (Latvia) currently no need to cut interest rates further.

- ECB rate cut 'talk' might resume after Sept pause. Discussions about further cuts might well resume in the autumn if the economy weakens.

Americas

- Fitch affirmed United States of America sovereign rating at AA+; outlook stable.

- Fed's Musalem stated that more data was needed to decide whether a September rate cut is warranted.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.23% at 560.00, FTSE +0.13% at 9,321.40, DAX -0.43% at 24,265.73, CAC-40 -0.55% at 7,925.76, IBEX-35 -0.58% at 15,321.50, FTSE MIB +0.15% at 43,375.00, SMI -0.35% at 12,229.09, S&P 500 Futures -0.20%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally lower and remained under pressure through the early part of the session; UK closed for holiday; markets processing events from Jackson Hole Symposium; among better performing sectors are consumer discretionary and communication services; sectors leading the way lower include energy and utilities; JDE Peet’s to be acquired by Keurig Dr Pepper; reportedly Coca-Cola considering sale of Costa Coffee; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: JDE Peet’s [JDEP.NL] +17.0% (Keurig Dr Pepper's ~$18.0B deal for JDE Peet's), IDS [IDS.UK] -8.5% (UK's Royal Mail said it would end existing shipment services to US this coming Tuesday, Aug 26th with plans to resume using the new tariff regime as soon as Thursday, Aug 28th).

- Energy: Orsted [ORSTED.DK] -17.5% (Revolution Wind receives offshore stop-work order from US Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management; to proceed with rights issue), Vestas Wind Systems [VWS.DK] -4.0% (US posts notice of Section 232 probe into wind turbines and components).

- Healthcare: Valneva [VLA.FR] -25.5% (confirmed FDA’s decision to suspend license of Chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ in the U.S.), argenx [ARGX.BE] +3.5% (trial results).

Speakers

- German IFO Economists noted hope for new orders was emerging among capital goods manufacturers.

- Italy's Draghi (former ECB chief): EU must shift from being an economic regulator to a genuine geopolitical power.

- Fitch affirmed India sovereign rating at BBB-; outlook stable.

Currencies/fixed income

- Quiet session with UK markets closed for bank holiday.

- USD consolidated its post Jackson Hole weakness. Markets await for more US data and comments from the Fed members this week to confirm rate-cut bet.

- EUR/USD hovering around the 1.17 level during the session. Current range seen between 1.15-1.20.

- GBP/USD trying to hold the 1.35 level.

- USD/JPY at 147.35 by mid-session.

- CNY currency (yuan_ posted its strongest level in a month in both onshore and offshore trading, as the PBOC strengthened its fixing after the dollar slid on dovish Fed comments.

- 10-year German Bund yield at 2.75% and 10-year Gilt yield closed for bank holiday. 10-year Treasury yield: 4.26%.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland July PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v -1.8% prior.

- (NO) Norway July Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.1%e v 4.1% prior].

- (TH) Thailand July Customs Trade Balance: $0.3B v $0.2Be; Exports Y/Y: 11.0% v 9.6%e; Imports Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.5%e.

- (ES) Spain July PPI M/M: % v 3.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.0% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Aug Consumer Confidence: 99.0 v 104.3e; Business Confidence: 101.5 v 99.1e.

- (TR) Turkey Aug Real Sector (Manufacturing) Confidence : 100.6 v 98.9 prior; Real Sector Confidence NSA (unadj): 100.6 v 100.2 prior; Capacity Utilization: 73.5% v 74.2% prior.

- (DE) Germany Aug IFO Business Climate: 89.0 v 88.8e; Current Assessment: 86.4 v 86.7e; Expectations Survey:91.6 v 90.5e.

- (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 469.5B v 465.7B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 442.5B v 439.1B prior.

- (PL) Poland July Real Retail Sales M/M: 4.4% v 3.4%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.5%e v 2.2% prior; Retail Sales (current prices) Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.7%e.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- (US) July Building Permits: No est v 1.354M prelim; M/M: No est v -2.8% prelim.

- (IL) Israel July Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v -0.7% prior.

- (NG) Nigeria Q2 GDP Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.1% prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €5.0B in 3-month and 9-month BuBills.

- 05:30 (EU) European Union to sell combined €6.0B in 2027, 2035 and 2038 NGEU bonds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell €2.3-2.7B in 2033, 2034 and 2055 OLO Bonds.

- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON400M in 6.7% Feb 2032 Bonds; Avg Yield: % v 7.31% prior, bid-to-cover: x v 1.49x prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 86.7 prior.

- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland July M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.5% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) No Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index (UK holiday).

- 08:30 (US) July Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.11e v -0.1 prior.

- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Aug Business Confidence: No est v -10.8 prior.

- 09:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €6.2-7.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 10:00 (US) July New Home Sales: 630Ke v 627K prior.

- 10:30 (US) Aug Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -1.7e v +0.9 prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Q2 Current Account Balance: No est v -$7.6B prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 15:15 (US) Fed’s Logan.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v 110.8 prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Aug BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior.

- 19:01 (IE) Ireland Aug Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 59.1 prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 89.4 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan July PPI Services Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.2% prior.

- 19:50 (US) Fed’s Williams.

- 21:00 (KR) South Korea to sell KRW250B in 20-Year Bonds.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Aug Minutes.

- 22:00 (KR) South Korea to sell KRW250B in 20-Year Bonds.

- 23:00 (TH) Thailand Central bank to sell THB65B in 3-month bills.