The Board still seems convinced that the most recent inflation uptick will eventually prove temporary, however there is a higher degree of vigilance this time around. The door for a further rate cut is still left ajar, but our impression is that the most recent inflation outcomes have raised the bar for said cut (as we have previously communicated).
From a pure economic standpoint, the Board seems to agree that the Swedish recovery would benefit from further monetary policy support. However, said policy support must not come at the expense of a loss of credibility in the Riksbank's inflation target. Thus, the Board most likely see an inflation downturn over the coming readings as a necessity for a rate cut being firmly in play.
In our view, the Minutes support our reasoning that inflation is basically too high currently for the Riksbank to comfortably cut the policy rate already at the September meeting, barring any sizeable surprise in the August figures. However, as the Board agrees that the real economy is in need of further support, there might well be room to cut rates further ahead, but only when inflation is back trending lower in a more plausible manner.
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