ECB meeting unlikely to be the wanted catalyst – Commerzbank

Anyone pinning their hopes on the ECB meeting as a catalyst for greater movement in EUR/USD is likely to be disappointed, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Another cut is not expected until next year

"Although new forecasts will be published, the meeting itself is unlikely to provide much new information. Everything currently suggests that interest rates will remain unchanged, a scenario that is already priced into the market."

"If anything, hopes may lie with ECB President Christine Lagarde. After all, she sounded surprisingly hawkish at the last two press conferences. However, there is little potential for surprises here either: the market has moved in our direction in recent weeks, and another interest rate cut is not expected until next year at the earliest."

"Lagarde is unlikely to reveal her hand so far in advance. Therefore, today's US inflation figures are likely to be more important for the currency market."