US Inflation Rate Expected to Accelerate, Core Steady

The US annual inflation rate is expected to have accelerated to 2.9% in August 2025, the highest since January, after holding at 2.7% in both June and July. On a monthly basis, CPI is seen rising 0.3%, slightly above July’s 0.2% increase. The pickup likely reflects retailers gradually passing on higher import tariffs, along with rising gasoline and supermarket costs. In contrast, rents are expected to ease. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to remain steady at 3.1%, the same as in July and at February’s peak, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, matching July’s pace.