Morning briefing: The US CPI data failed to give a push for the yields

The Dollar Index failed to sustain its rise past 98 and while below it, the index can be vulnerable to fall towards 97 or even 96. The Euro is moving higher within the 1.16-1.18 range. EURINR is headed towards the resistance near 104. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 172-174 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY needs to see a break past 7.1250 to bring higher levels into picture. Else, a pull back to 7.11 can happen initially. The Aussie has scope to rise towards 0.67 while it remains above 0.660-0.655. The Pound can trade within the 1.36-1.34 region for some time. USDINR tested 88.4550 before cooling down. Immediate resistance is coming at 88.50 and higher at 88.75, below which the pair is likely to trade within the 88.75-88.00 region. UK Trade balance and IN CPI data release are scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down. There is room on the downside to see more fall in the coming days. The US CPI data failed to give a push for the yields. The US Headline CPI rose 2.94% (YoY) in August, up from 2.73% in the previous month. The German Yields remain stable and lower. They can dip in the near-term before resuming their broader uptrend. The ECB left the rates unchanged in its meeting yesterday. The 10Yr GoI is coming down and can test its support. A sideways range is possible for some time before a downside break of the range happens eventually.

Dow Jones rose sharply yesterday breaking above the immediate resistance at 46000 after a higher US inflation data release that boosted expectations of a possible rate cut by the FED. The ECB kept rates unchanged as broadly expected. Dax has risen but could face rejection from immediate resistance at 24000. Nifty could attempt to rise and sustain above 25000 which can take it towards 25500 while Nikkei can continue to rise towards 45000-45500 where it can face a rejection. Nikkei and Shanghai are rising on optimism around the growth of AI-businesses. Shanghai, if manages to break above 3900 can reach to 4000 before facing rejection from there.

Brent and WTI have dipped as expected, with Brent vulnerable to a fall towards $65–$64 and WTI likely to test $60–$58 in the near term. Gold remains bullish despite a slight dip, targeting $3,750–$3,800, while Silver has broken above its earlier range and can rise towards $43–$44. Copper is inching higher with scope to test $4.70–$4.80, whereas Natural gas, having slipped below $3, looks weak towards $2.85–$2.80.

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