Getting back to the weak underlying trend

• Currencies and metals rally last Friday.
• The overnight markets are no rest for the Dollar.

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Summer returned to the St. Louis area for the past 5 days, and this week the temps will be quite hot again. That limits my time outside reading, but que sera, sera... My beloved Cardinals finally beat the Brewers yesterday! 3-2... They went a horrible 1-5 on the road trip... Sad, play...  Smoked some pork tenderloins on the Big Green Egg yesterday... YUMMY! I don't like where I have my outdoor cooking apparatuses, they are in the direct sun in the afternoon heat... But, I have nowhere else to put them, so I bake while I cook outside in the summer... Gerry Raferty greets me this morning with his song: Baker Street.

Well, last Thursday 9/11, that I missed writing, was certainly interesting... But first, there was a disturbance in the field on Wednesday, when PPI (Wholesale Inflation) was engineered to show that wholesale prices had dropped in August... The Annual PPI also showed slippage... Ever wonder how the bean counters can manipulate this data set? Well, I'm sure there are hedonic adjustments in there, but to put blankly, They just fudge the numbers to their liking.

On Thursday, our second day of infamy for the country, that we should NEVER Forget... The STUPID CPI held court over the markets and The STUPID CPI showed that inflation had risen .4% in August to a year-on-year rate of 2.9%... And once again, I ask the question, "Why would we as a country, cut interest rates now?" These rates of inflation are buggered downward by the Hedonic Adjustments. We all know that inflation is much higher right now, right? John Williams says if the bean counters calculated inflation the way it used to be calculated it would be closer to 10%.

And don't get me started on the Core CPI... The calc that takes out Food & Energy... as if we don't use these two daily, right? Well, The Core CPI showed a 3.1% year-on-year gain.

The dollar got sold... Bonds were bought... Gold which had been down a lot in the early trading came back, along with Silver, as yet, another notch has been put in the rate cutter's belt.

Thursday saw the BBDXY lose 4 index points to end the day at 1,197, and bonds to lose 4 percentage points in yield on the day ,( bond price was higher), and Gold to come back from being down in the morning to almost getting back to its ending price the previous day. Gold finished Thursday at $3,635 and Silver finished the day at $41.59... Oil was $62.24, and the 10-year was 4.03% yield.

Friday brought us news that the U.S. government reported a $345 billion deficit for August, larger than expected... One more month to go in the U.S.'s fiscal year that ends in Sept. I told you last week that we as a country were already on our way to $38 Trillion in debt... And this report plays well with that thought. I have some more on the Deficit in the FWIW section today, so stay tuned.. Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel.

Gold finished the week up $8 to $3,645... And Silver kicked some tail and gained 61-cents to $42.25... I can't believe the SPTs allowed Silver to cross over the $42 handle... Remember, the wolf is always at the Door.... The Dollar gained back an index point on Friday, and finished the week with the BBDXY at 1,198.

The BBBDXY is down -8.33% ytd... That means that the currencies have rallied so far this year VS the dollar... Remember the BBDXY is a gathering of the U.S. best trading partners' currencies... Whereas the Dollar Index is so heavily weighted with euros that it gives a skewed picture of the Dollar's overall performance... Why is the Dollar Index so heavily weighted with euros, I hear you asking? Because of all the legacy currencies that were converted to euros 26 years ago... So, now you know! 

In the overnight markets last night... there was additional dollar selling and the BBDXY starts our day/ week down 3 index points to 1,195... I still don't know what was on the minds of the dollar bugs last Thursday when the dollar rallied, but that's in our rear-view mirror now, so as my good friend and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter would say. Onward and Upward!

The weak dollar trend that I told you about a couple of weeks ago, was beginning is slow to start, but when the rate cuts come, and the dollar is getting debased, well... the weak dollar trend will be evident to all who watch it.

Gold is down $6 to start our day/ week this morning... Looks like profit taking to me... Silly geese... If you really want to take profits in your Gold, why not wait until Gold has reached the moon? I'm just saying... Silver is also off to start our day / week this morning by 7-cents... Again, not SPTs, but simply profit taking, in my eye.

The price of Oil has is trading with a $62 handle this morning, and the Fed Heads just won't keep their hands out of the cookie jar, with regard to the 10-year Treasury's yield... They continue to manipulate it to their liking... Serenity NOW! These Fed Heads are giving me a rash! The 10-year's yield sits at 4.05% to start our day / week this morning.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left their internal rate unchanged last week, which was good for the euro... The euro finished the week above the 1.17 handle, and the rest of the currencies followed the Big Dog off of the porch to chase the dollar down the street.

Also last week, Mexico announced that they were going to apply 50% tariffs on China... And China responded, this from Bloomber.com "China urged Mexico to "think twice" before levying tariffs, warning that any unilateral tariff increase would be seen as "appeasement and compromise toward unilateral bullying". 

Chuck again, yes, China warned the Mexican Gov't that the Chinese thought that Mexico was just doing that to appease the U.S.... That should have been enough saber rattling to get Mexico to back off... I guess we'll see.

I found this on Zerohedge.com .... "U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row in the just released preliminary September data, down from 58.2 to 55.4, far below the median estimates of 58.0 (in fact it was below all estimates), with both Current Conditions (61.0, Last 61.7) and Expectations (51.8, Last 55.9) declining.

“Consumers’ expected probability of personal job loss grew sharply this year and ticked up in September as well,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement, “suggesting that consumers are indeed concerned that they may be personally affected by any negative developments in labor markets.”

“Moreover, consumers also feel squeezed by the persistence of high prices,” she added."

Chuck again... job losses, higher prices, and a stock market that is overbought by miles... Yes, that would put me in a foul mood if someone asked me how confident I am about the economy.

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week also had the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week, and they exploded higher to 263,000 (from 236,000 )... Finally, all those layoffs that businesses have been announcing, are starting to show up here... We also saw the Consumer Sentiment for so far this month on Friday, and it showed that it fell as I just wrote about above.

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to print this from Tom Woods, email 9/11/2025... "You and I are demonized by media and cultural establishments that are at once sinister and low-IQ, the public is systematically lied to about matters of existential significance, we are taught to look upon our civilization with embarrassment and shame -- and this is all so drearily predictable that we've almost come to think of it as normal."

This quote from Tom Woods came in the same the letter where he talked about the assassination of Charlie Kirk... If you read Tom Woods like I do daily... You know what I'm talking about here, if you don't... Why wouldn't you? I'm just saying.

And the Wall Street Journal had this on Friday: "American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math."

Chuck again... no way that my darling is insufficient in math and reading, he's so brilliant! It's the teacher's fault, that's who is to blame! i jest... But wait, here... Shouldn't you as the parent be responsible for your child and their development? I'm just saying.

I don't know why I was compelled to include that last bit, other than to point out that the education system needs to be revised... Not every kid needs to go to college, no more student loans, and only kids that are brilliant go to college, and then those that can pay for their own way...  I'm going to tick off a lot of people with that last bit, but, Shoot Rudy, I can't make all of the people happy, all of the time! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last Friday, had the Consumer Sentiment reading for the first two weeks of this month, and it showed that U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row, down from 58.2 to 55.4... Apparently, the rising inflation was the cause of this drop... And to think that a rate cut is coming, is preposterous to me... But not to the stock jockeys and the POTUS!

The U.S. Data Cupboard will have a couple of prints this week, to go along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday... Starting tomorrow we'll see what kind of "back to school sales" helped Retail Sales....I would say that the BHI indicates to me that this could be a good print, because there hasn't been a day that went by this last month, where a delivery of something wasn't at our door.

To recap... Thursday saw Gold get sold, Friday saw Gold get bought... C'mon, what's it gonna be boy? The data last week was not what you put down for a strong resilient economy, so there's that... The ECB left rates unchanged late last week, it's about time they quit cutting them in Chuck's mind... And what's a mother to do with their falling behind in math and reading child?

Here's your snippet: "Despite the significant increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. continues to run massive budget deficits. The budget shortfall for fiscal 2025 has already exceeded last year’s deficit.

So much for import duties paying for the government.

That’s because Uncle Sam doesn’t have a revenue problem. He has a spending problem.

The Trump administration ran a $344.79 billion budget deficit in August. That was about $35 billion lower than last August. However, it was still the second-highest budget deficit charted this year.

The August deficit pushed the fiscal 2025 shortfall to $1.97 trillion with one month left. In fiscal 2024, the federal deficit was $1.82 trillion.

The U.S. pulled in $29.5 billion in customs duties in August, a staggering 321.4 percent increase. That pushed August receipts to $344.32 billion, a 12.3 percent increase year-over-year.

Through the first 11 months of fiscal 2025, the U.S. government brought in $165.2 billion in customs duties. That’s up $95.5 billion from the same period in fiscal ’24.

In total, the federal government has collected $4.69 trillion so far in fiscal 2025. That’s 6.8 percent higher than through the same period last year.

That’s a healthy revenue increase for any organization.

Unless that organization spends without restraint.

That's exactly what the federal government does, and spending is going up even faster than revenue.

A lot faster!"

Chuck again... And then there's the question of whether we, as a country, will have to rebate a ton of those tariffs already taken...  I had a reader chastise me last week when I mentioned that possibility... I don't know why, for I've been anti-tariffs since they were just an idea in the head of the POTUS!

Market Prices 9/15/2025; American Style: A$.6662, kiwi .5965, C$ .7245, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3515, Swiss $1.2580, European Style: rand 17.3289, krone 9.8228, SEK 9.2726, forint 331.61, zloty 3.6123, koruna 20.6040, RUB 82.34, yen 147.34, sing 1.2809, HKD 7.7787, sing 1.2809, INR 88.21, China 7.1219, peso 18.41, BRL 5.3351, BBDXY 1,195, Dollar Index 97.34, Oil $62.95, 10-year 4.05%, Silver $42.18, Platinum $1,399.00, Palladium $1,215.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold... $3,638

That's it for today... A very hot temps weekend here in my little river town... Shoot Rudy, I even made it to our pool yesterday to cool off! No Pfennig tomorrow, as I've be traveling to a good friend's lake house for a few days... I'll write from there, no worries, but not tomorrow... I'm so happy to be able to go... Two weeks ago, when Kevin called me, I was still dealing with weakness from not eating and I told him I would have play it by ear... My beloved Mizzou Tigers won last Saturday, and now begin their SEC regular season this coming Saturday... Go Tigers!  And tomorrow is the 16^th of Sept... Halfway to St. Patrick's Day! I better pack a green shirt to wear tomorrow! Blood, Sweat, and Tears takes us to the finish line today with their great 60's song: You've Made Me So Very Happy... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!