Kospi outperforms to fresh record highs as Nikkei hits 45K

Asia market update: Kospi outperforms to fresh record highs as Nikkei hits 45K; TikTok deal TBA; Cook, Miran to vote in FOMC; Trump to arrive in UK; Focus on US Aug Retail Sales.

General trend and developments

- Kospi did not look back after reaching record levels yesterday, powering ahead another +1.8% to fresh record highs, far outperforming the rest of Asia. Nikkei hit 45K for first time shortly after reopening following yesterday’s holiday, then proceeded to fall like a stone for an hour, only to push back to its earlier highs.

- Pres Trump, Treas Sec Bessent as well as the China side in the US-China trade negotiations from Spain confirmed that a framework deal with commercial terms had been reached for US TikTok, setting up a call between Trump and China’s Xi this Friday to consummate the deal - presumably the deal details will be released thereafter. (Oracle said to play a key role in TikTok US ops going forward).

- Bessent added that the US will not impose tariffs on Chinese goods for purchasing oil unless European countries do the same (inline with recent Trump comments)
(** Note today US tariffs on Japanese imports were officially lowered to 15%, with the USCBP issuing guidance on the tariffs from the US-Japan trade agreement].

- For any US coffee drinkers out there concerned about recent price hikes, Brazil instant coffee exports to US in August fell -60% y/y due to the 50% US tariffs.

- Beyond bilateral trade agreements on a per-country basis, the US Commerce Dept opened a 232 steel and aluminum 'inclusion window', raising the potential of applying more tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives.

- China declared that a preliminary anti-trust probe into Nvidia found that the company violated its laws, plans to continue probe. Nvidia dropped 2-3% but pared those losses later in the US session. The probe can lead to fines of up to 10% of Nvidia’s $1-5B China revenue. Final decision within 210 days. SK Hynix continued its strong rally, +5.7%, now up 30% over the past month. Samsung also +3%. [Note; China’s chip companies SMIC flat and Hua Hong -1%].

- US Appeals Court denied the Trump Admin’s DOJ request to remove US Fed’s Gov Lisa Cook ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Cook will be able to vote this Wed.

- The decision was separately balanced out by Trump’s Fed Board Nominee Stephen Miran winning his ascension to the US Fed by the Senate, enabling Miran to vote in US Fed FOMC meeting on Wed.

- RBA Assist Gov Hunter said that Australia is close to getting inflation to target and is monitoring underlying strength of consumer spending very closely.

- Ahead of Friday’s BOJ rate decision, all 50 economists in one financial press survey expect the BOJ to hold rates at 0.50%, with the number expecting the BOJ to raise rates before end-2025 falling to 55% (vs 63% in August).

- Another press outlet opined that the BOJ is more confident that the impact of tariffs will not push Japan into recession, with Japan now having signed a trade deal with the US on terms not as bad as initially feared.

- In Japanese politics Chief Cabinet Sec Hayashi confirmed his run for the LDP leadership, picking up the support of former PM Kishida’s faction, while Japan Fin Min Kato withdrew his leadership bid to instead throw his support behind Koizumi, who also confirmed his intention to run today. Former Econ Security Min Takayuki Kobayashi also threw his hat into the leadership contest.

- Pres Trump announced he is suing the New York Times for $15B in damages and defamation.

- Trump arrives in UK later today; Focus on US Aug Retail Sales.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted releases, using Asian time zone)

- Tue Sept 16th (Tue eve UK July jobs, DE ZEW Econ Sentiment, US Aug Retail Sales).

- Wed Sept 17th NZ Q2 Current Account, JP Aug Trade Balance (Tue eve UK Aug CPI, ID BI Rate Decision, Wed night US Aug prelim Building Permits, CA BOC Rate Decision, US FOMC Rate Decision).

- Thu Sept 18th NZ Q2 GDP, AU Aug jobs, (Thu eve BOE Rate Decision, FR protests / strikes against fiscal plans).

- Fri Sept 19th NZ Aug Trade Balance, JP Aug CPI, JP BOJ Rate Decision, (UK Aug Retail Sales).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Sept 15th Japan.

- Tue Sept 16th Malaysia.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.3% at 8,878.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 85.9 v 89.3 prior [three-month low].

- RBA Assist Gov (Econ) Hunter: Close to getting inflation to target - Comments at the 2025 AFIA Conference.

- New Zealand Aug Food Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.7% prior.

- New Zealand Aug Non-Resident Bond Holdings: 61.5% v 62.8% prior.

- RBNZ to stop 2025 IIB (Inflation Indexed bond) repurchases on Sept 17th.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.3% at 26,536; Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 3,865.

- China prelim probe finds Nvidia violated antitrust laws – press [overnight update].

- China trade delegation: US-China talks were candid and in-depth; It's common for US and China to have disagreements, thus it's important to find solutions; China has reached framework consensus on TikTok.

- China Pres Xi: To promote ‘orderly exit’ of outdated capacities [overnight update].

- Hong Kong Q2 Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.7% prior [overnight update].

- Hong Kong Q2 PPI Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.8% prior [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1027 v 7.1056 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY287B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY40B v injects CNY89B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 reopens +0.4% at 44.959 (fresh record high)

- Japan July Tertiary Industry Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e.

- Japan Fin Min Kato: Decided to support other candidate in LDP leadership race; to support Koizumi.

- Japan Farm Min Koizumi: Confirms told supporters of intention to run in the LDP leadership race; asked Finance Min Kato to lead LDP leadership campaign.

- Japan's Takayuki Kobayashi confirms to run for LDP leadership - Japan press.

- Tokyo Steel: Cuts Oct H-beam prices to ¥100K/t (prior ¥112K/t); Cuts hot-rolled coil steel prices to ¥86K/t (prior ¥89K/t).

- US Customs and Border Protection issues guidance on tariffs from US and Japan agreement.

- Japan Chief Trade Negotiator Akazawa: Confirms US auto tariffs on Japan to decline to 15% on Sept 16th.

- Sudden 'plunge' in JGB Futs said to 'spook' FX traders - US financial press.

- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Hayashi's confirms to run for LDP leadership - Japanese press.

- Japan Fin Min Kato: Hard to impose higher tariffs on Russian oil buyers - Kyodo.

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.4% at 3,421.

- South Korea July M2 Money Supply M/M: 0.8% v 0.7% prior.

- South Korea Aug Export Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -4.3% prior.

- South Korea Presidential Office: Notes the tariff talks between the US and South Korea are in 'difficult deadlock'.

- Hyundai Motors: South Korea union members vote to approve wage increase - press.

- South Korea PM Kim Min-seok; Confirms there have been discussions on FX swap with US, as deemed necessary - press.

Other Asia

- Vietnam Finance Ministry officials said to have met with officials from the LSE and FTSE Russell regarding upgrade to stock market status - Press.

- Indonesia Econ Min Hartarto: Planning 8 stimulus this year and 4 in 2026.

North America

- (US) Pres. Trump: Today, I have the Great Honor of bringing a $15 Billion Dollar Defamation and Libel Lawsuit against The New York Times - post on Truth Social.

- (US) Follow up: US Pres Trump Fed Board Nominee Miran wins clearance to US Fed in Senate vote by 48-47 (will be able to vote in US Fed FOMC meeting on Sept 17th).

- US appeals court declines to allow Trump admin /DOJ request to remove US Fed Gov Lisa Cook prior to US FOMC meeting - financial press.

- Argentina Pres Milei: Budget proposal guarantees fiscal balance - budget proposal for 2026.

- US GOP Senators said to prepare bill to extend Obamacare subsides - press.

- US Pres Trump’s Fed Board Nominee Miran clears US Senate procedural, as expected.

- (IR) US Sec of State Rubio: US to continue maximum economic pressure on Iran.

- (US) SEPT EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -8.7 V +5.0E; New Orders: -19.6 v +15.4 prior.

- (US) Commerce Dept opens 232 steel and aluminum 'inclusion window', raising potential to apply more tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives - press.

- (US) President Trump: To sign memo to establish Memphis Safe Task Force - Oval Office meeting
deal.

- Follow up: Oracle said to play key role in TikTok deal, enabling TikTok operations in the US - CBS.

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: US will not impose tariffs on Chinese goods for purchasing oil unless European countries do the same; US is willing to consider stronger sanctions on Russia oil and on oil companies, possibly freezing additional Russian assets.

- (US) Pres Trump: EU, US and China meeting has gone 'very well'; Deal reached that young people want; Meeting China Pres Xi on Fri, Sept 19th.

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Confirms there is a framework deal for TikTok; Commercial terms have been agreed; Talks on trade will continue.

- (US) Energy Sec Wright: US wants to boost national strategic uranium stockpile.

- Google considered selling parts of its adtech business to resolve US and EU antitrust issues, but DOJ has proposed a more extensive breakup plan - press.

Europe

- Google: (UK) To invest £5B in UK over next two years; To open Waltham Cross Data Centre (close to London) - statement ahead of US Pres Trump visit to UK.

- (UK) Follow Up: US President Trump to meet with UK PM Starmer on Thursday at 2:20 PM local time: Trump to also hold a press conference at 2:20 PM local time on Thurs.

- (RU) Russia Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates seeing no flexibility from Ukraine; Obvious that NATO is de facto involved in this war.

- (EU) ECB’s Schnabel (Germany): Interest rates are at a good place; Policy should maintain a steady hand.

- (UR) Reportedly Russia's Primorsk oil port partly resumed operations on Sat following drone attacks - press.

- (EU) ECB’s Kocher (Austria): Risks are more balanced now; Can’t say if trade risk inflationary or dis-inflationary.

- (UK) Bank of England expected to slow balance sheet runoff following market turbulence - FT.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +0.6%, ASX 200 +0.3%, Hang Seng -0.1%; Shanghai Composite -0.1%; Kospi +1.9%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%; DAX +0.1%; FTSE100 flat.

- EUR 1.1757-1.1787; JPY 146.96-147.54; AUD 0.6660-0.6676; NZD 0.5952-5974.

- Gold flat at $3,720/oz; BTC -0.7% at $115,930; Crude Oil +0.3% at $63.47/bbl; Copper -0.8% at $4.6830/lb.