All indices soared higher yesterday, but the question is: Will this be maintained?

USD: Sept '25 is Up at 97.390.  

Energies: Nov '25 Crude is Down at 62.92.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 14 ticks and trading at 116.13.

Indices: The Sep '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 36 ticks Higher and trading at 6702.25.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 3681.90

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.  Europe is trading Higher except the German Dax.

Possible challenges to traders

• FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 2:30 PM EST.  This is Major.
• Lack of Major Economic News.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT took off and went Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with several eco news items pending.  The Dow dived Lower at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the ZT climbed Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is now Dec '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 9/18/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 9/18/25

Bias

Yesterday we predicted an Upside Day as the markets were enthused with an interest rate cut finally.  The markets didn't disappoint as the Dow soared Higher by 138 points and the other indices charged Higher as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

So yesterday we awoke to discover the markets flying Higher as this was the first rate cut in nine months.  All indices soared Higher yesterday.  The question is will this be maintained?  As in all things only time will tell.