Focus on Sept global flash PMIs, US Fed Chair Powell speech

Asia market update: Quiet day in Asia with JP holiday; Focus on Sept Global Flash PMIs, US Fed Chair Powell speech.

General trend and developments

- On a Japanese holiday, Korea’s Kospi outperformed again to fresh record highs, with further under-performance of late from Shanghai and Hang Seng, both down ~1%

- Australia kicked off the Sept global PMI Manufacturing figures today; Mfng fell over a big figure from prior but still recorded its 9th month of expansion, while AU PMI Services also down three big figures, but still in its 20th month of expansion. AU Stats Agency noted manufacturing new orders notably returning to contraction as the negative impact of US tariffs set in.

- Late yesterday various China finance officials gave a financial system update. PBOC’s Gov Pan Gongsheng reiterated policy is supportive, appropriately loose, with no systemic financial risks. Monetary policy will focus on domestic issues (such as spurring consumption) with an improved monetary policy toolkit and adequate liquidity. China securities regulator CSRC said it will improve mechanisms for stock listings and M&A activity.

- Following yesterday’s news that China’s Fujian province said to be launching the first Arctic shipping route to Europe, shares of Ningbo Marine and Nanjing Port both up 10% today.

- New Zealand Fin Min Willis may announce RBNZ’s new Governor tomorrow. Rumors suggest it may be a woman and a foreigner, with speculation that may mean it could be Bank of Canada’s Dep Gov Toni Gravelle or Bank of England’s Dep Gov Sarah Breeden.

- Taiwan Semi +3%, echoing earlier gains for Nvidia +4% after it announced a $100B investment in OpenAI [timeframe uncertain].

- In an interesting note for Korea’s Celltrion and their US business with regards to Trump tariffs. To acquire Eli Lilly's biologics unit "Imclone Systems”. As a result, Co believes it has fundamentally and completely eliminated all future US tariff risks.

- Various Japan PM hopefuls continue commenting ahead of Oct 4 LDP Leadership race. Leading candidate Takaichi said willing to embrace some fiscal constraint, after recently not commenting directly on BOJ policy.

- Japan MoF meeting with primary dealers tomorrow. [A reminder the Nikkei reported back in August that the MOF would be again sounding out dealers to potentially reduce super-long JGB sales].

- US Pres Trump to address the UN in NYC tomorrow at 09:50am ET, Tuesday.

- Spot Gold trades at fresh record high of $3,749/oz.

- Tylenol owner Kenvue +4.5% after hours following Trump's HHS announcing Acetaminophen (active ingredient in Tylenol) use can be associated to autism. (Shares had been down -20% over the past month).

- US equity FUTs flat to slightly down during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted releases, using Asian time zone)

- Tue 23rd Sept Global Flash PMIs, (Tue night US Fed Chair Powell).

- Wed 24th JP Sept Flash PMIs, AU Aug CPI, JP BOJ outright purchases, (Wed eve DE Sept Ifo Business Climate).

- Thu 25th JP BOJ Minutes, JP 40-yr JGBs, (Thu night US Aug Durable Goods, Final Q2 GDP. US Aug Home Sales).

- Fri 26th JP Tokyo CPI, JP BOJ Noguchi, (Fri night US Aug Core PCE).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Tue 23rd Japan.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.3% at 8,831.

- Australia Sept Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 51.6 v 53.0 prior [9th month of expansion]; PMI Services: 52.0 v 55.8 prior (20th month of expansion).

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence: 84.6 v 85.9 prior.

- Australia sells A$300M v A$300M indicated in 4.75% Jun 2054 Bonds; Avg Yield: 5.0141% v 5.0560% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.35x v 3.00x.

- New Zealand Treasury expected to appoint a "woman" and "foreigner" as the new RBNZ Gov; an announcement could come by as early as Wed - US financial press.

- Follow up: New Zealand Fin Min Willis to make announcement regarding RBNZ at 1pm local time Wed (tomorrow) - financial press.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.3% at 26,435; Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 3,830.

- SCMP: Hong Kong stocks drop after PBOC Gov 'dashes' hopes of stimulus measures.

- China PBOC may 'normalise' 14-Day Reverse Repos to manage liquidity while increasingly relying on more targeted and efficient short- and medium-term lending tools to smooth funding conditions - Shanghai Securities News, citing analysts.

- HK$ HIBOR 1-month interbank rate rises to highest since May 2nd.

- HK$ HIBOR 1-week interbank rate rises to 4.69857%, highest level since Dec 2024.

- China PBOC Gov Pan Gongsheng: Reiterates policy is supportive, appropriately loose; Have ensured there are no systemic financial risks; Have improved monetary policy toolkit [overnight update].

- China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said to ask local brokerages to pause real-world asset (RWA) tokenization business in Hong Kong – press [overnight update].

- China Securities Regulator (CSRC) Head: Will improve mechanisms for stock listings and M&A [overnight update].

- China's AI-driven supply chain expansion said to be reshaping the DRAM landscape - Taiwan press.

- Bytedance: US official confirms TikTok enforcement pause will be extended another 20 days.

- Hong Kong Aug CPI Composite Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1057 v 7.1106 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY276B in 7-day reverse repos; Net drains CNY11B v drains CNY40B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 closed for holiday.

- Japan FSA plans to crack down on unregistered investment firms – Nikkei.

- Japan PM Contender Koizumi: Must be mindful of need for fiscal discipline.

- Japan PM Contender Takaichi: Should be mindful of risk of causing yield rise in guiding fiscal policy.

- Japan PM Contender Hayashi: Reiterates must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending, keep sending out signal to markets Japan will maintain fiscal discipline.

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.6% at 3,489.

- South Korea Aug PPI Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5% prior.

- South Korea President Lee: Reiterates tariff negotiations with the US are stirring FX market concerns - Yonhap.

- Japan, South Korea, US reaffirm commitment to 'complete denuclearization' for North Korea - joint statement.

- South Korea Foreign Min Cho: US Sec of State Rubio to 'step up' discussing on easing US via regulations for South Korea workers - statement.

Other Asia

- Follow up: Indonesia lawmakers reported to agree on 2026 budget at IDR3,842T - financial press.

- India Rupee (INR) trading at fresh record lows of 88.45 / USD – traders.

- Malaysia Aug CPI Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e.

- Indonesia, EU conclude FTA (Free Trade Agreement) - press.

- JPMorgan CEO Dimon comments on trade in the Times of India: Sees tariffs as 'a little' recessionary, all things equal; tariffs also seen as 'modestly' inflationary; Hopes Trump and Modi can agreement on trade deal - Indian press.

North America

- Palantir: US Treasury Dept awarded API layer contract to the co. extends Salesforce contract related to online services [relates to the UST IT Modernization Initiative].

- (US) Pres Trump to deliver remarks to UN Gen Assembly (UNGA) at 09:50am ET on Tuesday; To also deliver remarks at UN Leaders' reception at 19:20pm ET, Tuesday.

- US lawmakers visiting China hold briefing in Beijing - press.

- (US) Bain says there is an $800B revenue shortfall threatening AI's future - financial press.

- (US) President Trump: Acetaminophen (active ingredient in Tylenol) use can be associated to autism - comments from White House.

- (US) Pres Trump to meet with Democratic Congressional leaders Schumer and Jeffries this week about govt funding - press.

- (US) Pres Trump is expected to approve Tiktok deal via EO later this week - WSJ.

- (AR) US Treasury Sec Bessent: Argentina is strategic ally; US Dept of Treasury standing ready to support: Will meet with US Pres Trump and Argentina Pres Milei on Tues (Sept 23rd) - X post.

- (BR) Brazil Fin Min Haddad: Ending tax exemptions is not increasing taxes.

- (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter for 2025 & 2026): See little reason to cut rates further for now; Concerned about inflation being high for long time; Penciling in only one rate cut for 2025 - WSJ interview.

- (CA) Canada Aug Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e.

- (US) Aug Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.12 v -0.16e.

- (US) Fed's Musalem (voter): Would support further cuts if signs of labor market deterioration emerge; Monetary policy must continue to lean against inflation that remains above target; Limited room for further rate cuts - speech text.

- (US) Fed's Miran (FOMC voter, dovish dissenter): Believe the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid-2% area, almost 2ppt below the current level; Expect recent inflation to fall from 3.5% now to 1.5% in 2027.

- (US) Fed’s Barkin (non-voter for 2025): A modest amount of tariff cost is being paid by consumers now; Will take time for tariff inflation to work through.

- (US) Fed's Hammack (non-voter for 2025): Fed is being challenged on both sides of the mandate: likely to see inflation continue to rise; 4.3% unemployment is a pretty healthy rate.

Europe

- (EU) Follow up: EU said to consider delaying ban linked to imports linked to deforestation - FT.

- (IE) Ireland Aug PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -3.0% v -3.5% prior.

- (EU) Euro zone Sept advance consumer confidence: -14.9 V -15.0E.

- (EU) ECB’s Nagel (Germany): Not concerned about Euro valuation - speech text.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 closed, ASX 200 +0.5%, Hang Seng -1.1%; Shanghai Composite -1.1; Kospi +0.9%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures -0.1%; Nasdaq100 flat; DAX +0.2%; FTSE100 flat.

- EUR 1.1726-1.1820; JPY 147.60-147.87; AUD 0.6581-0.6602; NZD 0.5846-5870.

- Gold +0.2% at $3,781/oz; BTC -1.5% at $112,820; Crude Oil -0.4% at $62.02/bbl; Copper -0.5% at $4.6297/lb.