South Africa Leading Index Rises for 2nd Month

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July 2025, marking the second consecutive increase after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in June. Seven of the ten available components contributed positively, led by higher US dollar–denominated export commodity prices and stronger growth in passenger vehicle sales. Additional support came from improvements in manufacturing orders, job advertisements, building plan approvals, average hours worked in manufacturing, and trading-partner leading indicators. Meanwhile, the main negative contributions came from a slowdown in real M1 money supply growth, a narrower interest rate spread, and weaker business confidence. At the same time, the composite coincident indicator increased by 0.3% in June, supported by gains in wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, alongside stronger industrial production. The lagging indicator declined by 0.5% in the same month.