Fitch Downgrades Thailand Outlook to Negative

Fitch Ratings has revised Thailand’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to negative while affirming its BBB+ rating, citing mounting fiscal pressures and weakening growth prospects. Government debt rose to 59.4% of GDP in August 2025—an increase of 25 percentage points since before the pandemic and near the ‘BBB’ median of 59.6%. Political instability has further weighed on sentiment following the September ouster of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The new minority government is expected to call general elections within four months, heightening the risk of short-term fiscal stimulus and policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, Thailand’s economic recovery remains uneven. Tourism has been sluggish, with 21.9 million visitors in January–August 2025, well below the nearly 40 million recorded in 2019. Exports are also under pressure from slowing global demand and the impact of a 19% US tariff.