US Headline PCE Inflation Expected to Pick Up

The US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month in August 2025, after a 0.2% gain in July. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase 0.2%, easing from 0.3% in each of the previous two months. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation is seen edging up to 2.7%—the highest in six months—from 2.6% in both July and June. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.9%. The PCE index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.