New Zealand Business Mood Holds Near 5-Month High

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index stood at 49.6 in September 2025, almost unchanged from August’s five-month peak of 49.7, reflecting sustained optimism about economic recovery underpinned by lower interest rates. Firms reported stronger expected activity, which rose to a five-month high of 43.4 (vs 38.7 in August), while past activity also improved (4.5 vs 1.3). Export intentions were steady (16.4 vs 16.6), but employment (16.4 vs 10.5) and pricing intentions (45.9 vs 42.5) strengthened, alongside higher profit expectations (20.2 vs 15.2). Cost pressures also edged up (75.1 vs 74.0), while wage growth expectations were stable at 2.4%. Investment intentions softened slightly (17.5 vs 20.2), even as credit access improved (17.3 vs 16.9). Inflation expectations held within the recent range (2.71% vs 2.63%). In sectoral trends, residential construction intentions eased (23.3 vs 26.8), contrasting with commercial construction, which climbed to its highest since April (31.7 vs 25.0).